Refresh: the signing approaches, the strait stays shut
The US-Iran framework hardened toward its 19 June signing in Switzerland, the MoU signed electronically by both sides, but it stays a non-final deal with the Strait of Hormuz still physically shut and Israeli operations in Lebanon continuing. A hawkish first Fed meeting under a new chair read as an independence signal; Hungary, Japan, Niger, and Equatorial Guinea entered the board.
Abstract
Since the last pass (15 June) we swept the canon, multilateral bodies plus a deliberately diverse, multi-regional independent press set, and re-scored what moved. Twenty-one sub-factors changed across twelve countries. State self-reports stayed excluded from scoring. The dominant story did not reverse this week, it hardened: the US-Iran framework moved closer to signing without becoming any more real on the ground. The discipline that mattered most was restraint, both in what we refused to score and in one move we deliberately did not make.
The signing approaches, the strait stays shut
A week ago the framework peace deal was announced but unsigned. This week it hardened. The memorandum of understanding was signed electronically by both sides on 17 June, with the formal ceremony on track for 19 June at the Bürgenstock resort in Switzerland, confirmed by Al Jazeera, swissinfo, France 24, NBC, and NPR. That is a firmer commitment than a week ago, and we moved the US near-term conflict sub-factor from -5 to -4 on it.
But almost nothing else became more real. The deal is still a non-final 60-day framework, and its core term is still openly disputed: a senior US official told Axios this is "pay-for-performance" with "no frozen funds released without the Iranians implementing their commitments," against Iran's insistence that relief is upfront and integral. The Strait of Hormuz is still physically near-shut, only about seven ships had transited against more than 550 stranded, with roughly two months of mine-clearing and, per Argus, four to six months before crude export volumes recover. And the deal's "all fronts including Lebanon" language is not holding: UN data show projectile counts down sharply, 174 in a day against 705 the prior Sunday, but Israeli strikes continued, at least four killed at Nabatieh on 17 June, and the defence minister said forces stay in southern Lebanon "for the time being."
So the same skew discipline as last pass applies, with even more weight on the word announced. Iran's near-term conflict moved from -7 to -6 and its country-level skew stayed positive, a deeply negative base with a large contingent upside in the tail if the deal holds. We held Iran's sanctions sub-factor at -9: the EU was explicit that relief comes only "once the conditions allow" and "if there was an Iranian nuclear deal", so sanctions are fully in place today, and the reported $24 billion frozen-asset release remains Iranian-state-media-sourced and US-rejected, kept out of the scores. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar were all held: oil fell further, Brent near $78 to $80, which eases the price channel, but the volume chokepoint is confirmed still shut, and Qatar remains the most hostage to physical reopening because it has no pipeline bypass. Better oil prices are not the same as oil moving.
A hawkish Fed, read as an independence signal
The largest non-war US development was the 17 June FOMC, the first under new chair Kevin Warsh. The Fed held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on a 12-0 vote, raised its 2026 headline-inflation projection to 3.6 percent, and shifted its median dot to imply a possible hike this year, and Warsh declined to submit a dot at all. Equities sold off sharply on the day, reportedly the worst first "Fed day" for a new chair since 1994.
We read that as evidence, not noise. A central bank delivering a hawkish surprise that tanks the market, against an administration that has spent a year pressing for easier policy, is acting independently, and Trump publicly saying he wants Warsh "totally independent" is a notable reversal of the Powell-pressure posture. On observable actions over stated intentions, that reads better than the prior "Warsh seen as weak", so we moved the US monetary-independence sub-factor near-term from -5 to -4. US inflation held at -5: the oil reversal is disinflationary, but the Fed itself just raised its inflation forecast, so the cross-currents cancel, and no new CPI fell in the window. Together with the conflict move, the US currency read improved from -4.11 to -3.94 and assets from -4.82 to -4.75; the living read held at -5.32, because the categories that dominate it did not improve.
On the institutional side, the documented pattern extended rather than broke. A DOJ investigation of Governor Gavin Newsom and his wife surfaced on 15 June, adding a sitting governor to the run of probes of administration opponents; we held rule of law at -5 and raised its confidence. And Human Rights Watch's 18 June report on the Minnesota federal deployment documented two unlawful killings of US citizens, hundreds of unlawful arrests, racial profiling, and suppressed assembly. We raised the confidence on US civil liberties and treatment of non-citizens on that independent corroboration, but held civil liberties at -5 rather than moving it to -6, see the method note for why that distinction carried real weight.
Europe anchors, and four states enter the board
Ukraine anchored further: the first accession cluster anticipated last pass actually opened, the Intergovernmental Conference was held in Luxembourg on 15 June, and the G7 summit at Évian on 15 to 17 June agreed to increase military support and tighten Russian oil and gas sanctions, with Canada sanctioning 160 shadow-fleet entities. We held Ukraine's alliance sub-factor and raised its confidence; the accession process is now operationalized, not just promised, though Hungary built in a future suspension lever tied to minority-rights compliance.
Four countries entered this pass. Hungary improved: parliament passed a constitutional amendment on 15 June capping prime ministers at eight years, institutionally entrenching the peaceful turnover from Orbán to Magyar and blocking Orbán's return, a democratic-consolidation signal that lifted its political-stability sub-factor and its living read to 0.83. Japan held but firmed: the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.0 percent on 16 June, the highest since 1995, a credible data-driven tightening that reaffirms central-bank independence, so we raised confidence on its already-strong monetary sub-factor. Niger worsened: gunmen attacked Niamey's international airport on 18 June, a high-value military and aviation target in a junta-ruled, jihadist-exposed Sahel state, taking its social-cohesion sub-factor from -6 to -7 and its living read to -4.54. And Equatorial Guinea worsened: the prime minister and full cabinet resigned on 16 to 17 June after the government met under 10 percent of its own diversification and governance targets, an open admission of administrative failure that moved its civil-service-capacity sub-factor from -6 to -7.
Peru and Bolivia, last pass's two wobblers, were both held. Peru's 7 June runoff is still uncertified, a slow-burn contested count with the margin reportedly flipping toward Fujimori on overseas ballots, but no in-window concession, certification, or new violence. Bolivia's crisis ground on: the first government-union talks in seven weeks failed on 18 June and the blockades persist, but the union dropped its demand for President Paz's resignation and the states-of-emergency law signed on 8 June remains unused, so the acute collapse risk did not escalate.
Method note
Two restraint calls define this pass. First, the unverifiable deal terms, the $24 billion asset release, the upfront tranche, the Iranian-managed reopening tolls, were carried by Iranian state media and disputed by the US, so they stayed out of the scores entirely; only the framework and the signing date are independently confirmed.
Second, a quieter call. The Human Rights Watch findings tempted a move of US civil liberties from -5 to -6. We held at -5 deliberately, because the framework's transparency tier is derived mechanically: any country whose press freedom or civil liberties crosses -6 is reclassified "opaque" and has every confidence capped at 0.60, on the logic that the truth can no longer get out. But the United States is exactly where that logic fails, we are scoring it from a freely published Human Rights Watch report, independent court reporting, and a governor airing a DOJ probe on the record. The truth is plainly still getting out. So the severity belongs in higher confidence on the existing -5, not in a score that would falsely declare the country opaque. That the cap is mechanical is a feature; noticing when it would lie is the analyst's job.
Every changed sub-factor carries its sources in the country file's notes, and the aggregates were recomputed mechanically by the shared scoring engine, so the numbers here cannot drift from what the site serves. As always, this is an analytical framework, not financial, investment, immigration, or legal advice.