themildtake

ratings · methodology v2.2

Country risk ratings

A forward-looking risk read, not a snapshot of today. Each score (−10 to +10) rates how far you could trust a country over the relevant horizon for three decisions — living there, holding assets there, or holding its currency — each paired with a confidence level and a skew (which way the tail leans). It is not a measure of current quality of life or current asset/currency value. Sort the grid by any decision, or open a country for the full breakdown.

Compare countries → Learn more about the methodology →

  • clear positive (≥ +3)
  • mixed (−3…+3)
  • clear negative (≤ −3)

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Headline findings

  • The top of the board is small, stable, and institutionally deep: Norway, Switzerland, and Luxembourg lead living, with Switzerland and Singapore topping the money decisions. They win by having no weak category rather than one standout.
  • The floor is conflict and state collapse - Sudan, Haiti, North Korea, Yemen, Myanmar - where the read is unanimous across all three decisions.
  • The marquee outlier is the United States at living #173: a wealthy democracy in the bottom decile, driven by institutional drift (statistical-agency capture, court defiance, alliance decay) scored on observable actions rather than reputation. On the economic-heavy assets and currency decisions it now scores BELOW China.
  • The 2026 Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure recalibrated the Middle East: the Gulf petrostates drop on the near-term currency and mid-horizon assets decisions (oil/LNG export blockade, regional strikes, attacks and threats on desalination), while the longer-horizon living read moves less.
  • Skew is decision-relevant: a positive-skew recovery cluster (Ukraine, Argentina, Syria) leans up on resolution and reform - Ukraine's war-forged, world-leading drone/EW defense industry is now an emerging export strength - while the negative-skew majors (US, China, Russia) lean down on institutional drift and structural tails.
Outstanding work (4)
  • Track the 2026 Iran war / Strait of Hormuz status (ceasefire durability, strait reopening) and re-score the Gulf exporters + energy importers as the shock resolves or escalates.
  • Re-check the US official-data entanglement discount after each major statistical-agency development (BLS leadership, FOMC behavior, court compliance).
  • Continue monitoring China via independent proxies (electricity, freight, partner customs, foreign-firm earnings); revisit if proxy signals diverge from current estimates.
  • Refresh trade scores as tariff actions and partner diversification evolve (action-driven, faster-moving than structural factors); watch Ukraine's emerging defense-export industry as a positive-skew driver.