ratings · methodology v2.2

Country risk ratings

A forward-looking risk read, not a snapshot of today. Each score (−10 to +10) rates how far you could trust a country over the relevant horizon for three decisions — living there, holding assets there, or holding its currency — each paired with a confidence level and a skew (which way the tail leans). It is not a measure of current quality of life or current asset/currency value. Sort the grid by any decision, or open a country for the full breakdown.

  • clear positive (≥ +3)
  • mixed (−3…+3)
  • clear negative (≤ −3)
relocation data
Personalize this grid →194 countries, ranked by living score
#
1NorwayNOR
+6.6084%
+6.1185%
+5.8086%
→ symmetric
2SwitzerlandCHE
+6.5583%
+6.4383%
+6.2884%
→ symmetric
3LuxembourgLUX
+6.3782%
+5.8583%
+5.4083%
→ symmetric
4IcelandISL
+5.4679%
+4.7680%
+4.081%
→ symmetric
5LiechtensteinLIE
+5.3372%
+4.7675%
+4.2678%
▲ positive
6AustriaAUT
+5.0482%
+4.2483%
+3.5184%
→ symmetric
7DenmarkDNK
+4.9980%
+4.5381%
+4.3881%
→ symmetric
8SloveniaSVN
+4.8179%
+4.9881%
+4.9583%
→ symmetric
9FinlandFIN
+4.6081%
+3.7882%
+3.2082%
→ symmetric
10EstoniaEST
+4.4681%
+3.8082%
+3.3183%
→ symmetric
11AndorraAND
+4.2772%
+3.4774%
+2.7577%
▲ positive
12MonacoMCO
+4.2268%
+3.6671%
+3.1273%
→ symmetric
13San MarinoSMR
+4.0568%
+2.6871%
+1.7274%
→ symmetric
14LithuaniaLTU
+4.0279%
+3.4680%
+3.1981%
→ symmetric
15UruguayURY
+3.8183%
+3.8084%
+3.7485%
→ symmetric
16SingaporeSGP
+3.8060%
+5.0760%
+5.5960%
→ symmetric
17CyprusCYP
+3.7578%
+3.7781%
+4.0883%
→ symmetric
18SwedenSWE
+3.6777%
+3.6177%
+3.4578%
→ symmetric
19LatviaLVA
+3.6279%
+3.7881%
+3.9783%
→ symmetric
20CzechiaCZE
+3.5979%
+3.9682%
+4.1084%
→ symmetric
21BelgiumBEL
+3.5583%
+3.8685%
+3.5787%
→ symmetric
22MauritiusMUS
+3.5570%
+3.3571%
+3.0572%
▲ positive
23GreenlandGRL
+3.5367%
+2.7468%
+2.5269%
▲ positive
24NetherlandsNLD
+3.4877%
+3.6179%
+3.6080%
→ symmetric
25IrelandIRL
+3.3278%
+2.8978%
+3.0479%
→ symmetric
26SeychellesSYC
+3.2869%
+3.1272%
+3.0775%
▲ positive
27BotswanaBWA
+3.2572%
+2.3375%
+1.7578%
▼ negative
28NamibiaNAM
+3.0771%
+2.7373%
+2.3676%
→ symmetric
29AustraliaAUS
+2.9977%
+2.5477%
+2.3678%
→ symmetric
30JapanJPN
+2.9174%
+2.4574%
+2.1374%
▼ negative
31GermanyDEU
+2.8978%
+3.0179%
+2.9780%
→ symmetric
32ChileCHL
+2.8281%
+3.3183%
+3.5184%
→ symmetric
33CroatiaHRV
+2.7878%
+3.3981%
+3.7083%
→ symmetric
34CanadaCAN
+2.7075%
+1.6777%
+0.8278%
→ symmetric
35PortugalPRT
+2.6877%
+3.1979%
+3.5979%
→ symmetric
36Costa RicaCRI
+2.6779%
+3.0582%
+3.2083%
→ symmetric
37FranceFRA
+2.5580%
+2.5581%
+2.0481%
▼ negative
38BarbadosBRB
+2.4678%
+2.1380%
+1.9082%
▼ negative
39GrenadaGRD
+2.4165%
+2.0770%
+2.2274%
▲ positive
40New ZealandNZL
+2.3975%
+2.0975%
+1.8776%
→ symmetric
41United KingdomGBR
+2.3979%
+2.5681%
+2.2582%
→ symmetric
42Cabo VerdeCPV
+2.3272%
+1.7174%
+1.4377%
→ symmetric
43GhanaGHA
+2.3174%
+2.2278%
+2.4881%
→ symmetric
44ItalyITA
+2.3173%
+2.8874%
+3.1174%
▼ negative
45South KoreaKOR
+2.2174%
+2.2975%
+2.3375%
▼ negative
46PolandPOL
+2.1473%
+2.5274%
+2.4574%
→ symmetric
47JamaicaJAM
+2.0276%
+2.2879%
+2.2081%
▼ negative
48SpainESP
+1.9578%
+2.3779%
+2.5680%
→ symmetric
49ArgentinaARG
+1.6373%
+2.1873%
+2.6974%
▲ positive
50Saint Kitts and NevisKNA
+1.5762%
+1.1268%
+0.9172%
→ symmetric
51The BahamasBHS
+1.5278%
+1.4781%
+1.4382%
▼ negative
52Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesVCT
+1.4463%
+0.7968%
+0.6572%
→ symmetric
53GreeceGRC
+1.3473%
+2.2474%
+2.8874%
→ symmetric
54MaltaMLT
+1.2273%
+2.4874%
+3.1374%
→ symmetric
55Dominican RepublicDOM
+1.1577%
+1.7580%
+2.1782%
▲ positive
56Saint LuciaLCA
+1.1462%
+0.7765%
+0.8468%
→ symmetric
57MalaysiaMYS
+1.1272%
+2.0172%
+2.2773%
→ symmetric
58BelizeBLZ
+1.1163%
+0.6366%
+0.6869%
▲ positive
59RomaniaROU
+1.074%
+1.3878%
+1.3481%
▼ negative
60IsraelISR
+0.9370%
+0.8072%
+0.7673%
▼ negative
61DominicaDMA
+0.9060%
+0.5367%
+0.5170%
▼ negative
62QatarQAT
+0.9060%
+1.0660%
-0.1560%
▼ negative
63PalauPLW
+0.8364%
+0.2268%
-0.0172%
▲ positive
64HungaryHUN
+0.8270%
+0.7572%
+0.4373%
▲ positive
65AlbaniaALB
+0.7569%
+2.0570%
+2.8771%
→ symmetric
66Antigua and BarbudaATG
+0.7358%
+0.4861%
+0.5463%
→ symmetric
67ArmeniaARM
+0.7166%
+0.7369%
+1.0872%
▼ negative
68BhutanBTN
+0.6266%
-0.2268%
-0.6269%
▲ positive
69MoroccoMAR
+0.6172%
+1.5973%
+2.1974%
→ symmetric
70Trinidad and TobagoTTO
+0.5971%
+0.3572%
+0.1173%
▼ negative
71ZambiaZMB
+0.5769%
+1.1571%
+1.7272%
→ symmetric
72MontenegroMNE
+0.5374%
+0.7879%
+0.5682%
▲ positive
73FijiFJI
+0.5167%
+0.7470%
+0.8972%
→ symmetric
74São Tomé and PríncipeSTP
+0.5164%
+0.1269%
-0.0674%
▲ positive
75SlovakiaSVK
+0.4772%
+1.0273%
+1.1974%
▼ negative
76OmanOMN
+0.4259%
+1.0360%
+0.7960%
▼ negative
77South AfricaZAF
+0.4178%
+0.9379%
+1.3881%
▼ negative
78Sri LankaLKA
+0.4068%
+0.7270%
+0.6871%
→ symmetric
79MoldovaMDA
+0.3867%
+0.3870%
+0.5973%
→ symmetric
80SamoaWSM
+0.3063%
+0.4565%
+0.9066%
→ symmetric
81SenegalSEN
+0.2868%
+0.2270%
+0.1172%
→ symmetric
82ParaguayPRY
+0.1672%
+1.2273%
+2.2073%
→ symmetric
83United Arab EmiratesARE
+0.1059%
+0.3260%
-0.4260%
▼ negative
84GuyanaGUY
+0.0266%
+0.8567%
+1.8068%
→ symmetric
85North MacedoniaMKD
+0.0272%
+1.1173%
+1.7274%
→ symmetric
86The GambiaGMB
+0.0165%
+0.3467%
+0.6968%
▲ positive
87UkraineUKR
-0.1366%
-1.1068%
-1.5869%
▲ positive
88IndonesiaIDN
-0.1470%
+1.0571%
+1.8572%
→ symmetric
89Côte d'IvoireCIV
-0.2869%
+0.6871%
+1.1373%
→ symmetric
90BulgariaBGR
-0.3072%
+1.4473%
+2.6374%
→ symmetric
91Marshall IslandsMHL
-0.3361%
-0.6564%
-0.6267%
▼ negative
92PanamaPAN
-0.3370%
-0.6971%
-1.3472%
▼ negative
93BrazilBRA
-0.4371%
-0.1572%
-0.0773%
▼ negative
94SurinameSUR
-0.5066%
-0.6868%
-1.2370%
▲ positive
95ThailandTHA
-0.5173%
+0.8473%
+1.3474%
▼ negative
96MongoliaMNG
-0.6765%
-1.3166%
-1.2468%
→ symmetric
97Federated States of MicronesiaFSM
-0.7559%
-0.4762%
-0.3364%
→ symmetric
98VietnamVNM
-0.7860%
+0.2260%
+0.7660%
→ symmetric
99BeninBEN
-0.8169%
+0.2571%
+1.0173%
▼ negative
100KenyaKEN
-0.8170%
+0.2572%
+0.7972%
→ symmetric
101KuwaitKWT
-0.8160%
-0.4360%
-1.1560%
▼ negative
102PeruPER
-0.8872%
+1.2173%
+2.6873%
→ symmetric
103TuvaluTUV
-0.9053%
-0.7558%
-0.6160%
▼ negative
104LesothoLSO
-0.9363%
-0.3765%
+0.0168%
▼ negative
105RwandaRWA
-0.9560%
-1.3360%
-1.6160%
▼ negative
106VanuatuVUT
-1.061%
-1.2365%
-1.1667%
▼ negative
107ColombiaCOL
-1.0472%
-0.9073%
-0.4373%
→ symmetric
108Saudi ArabiaSAU
-1.0460%
-1.0160%
-2.0360%
▼ negative
109BruneiBRN
-1.0759%
-0.8959%
-1.2160%
▼ negative
110IndiaIND
-1.1871%
-0.4872%
-0.1173%
→ symmetric
111BahrainBHR
-1.2560%
-0.5660%
-1.0660%
▼ negative
112GuatemalaGTM
-1.2973%
+0.4373%
+1.5574%
→ symmetric
113El SalvadorSLV
-1.4059%
+0.5660%
+1.3460%
→ symmetric
114UzbekistanUZB
-1.4069%
-0.8370%
-0.4572%
→ symmetric
115Timor-LesteTLS
-1.4568%
-1.9973%
-2.1676%
▼ negative
116TongaTON
-1.4659%
-1.5162%
-1.3263%
▼ negative
117GeorgiaGEO
-1.4858%
-0.3059%
+0.5559%
▼ negative
118TogoTGO
-1.5967%
-0.3669%
+0.2671%
▼ negative
119KyrgyzstanKGZ
-1.7562%
-0.8863%
-0.2264%
▼ negative
120PhilippinesPHL
-1.8870%
-1.2171%
-0.8071%
→ symmetric
121MaldivesMDV
-1.9066%
-1.7269%
-2.0471%
▼ negative
122EswatiniSWZ
-1.9158%
-0.9259%
-0.6959%
▼ negative
123KiribatiKIR
-1.9356%
-1.6560%
-1.4463%
▼ negative
124JordanJOR
-1.9660%
-1.3660%
-1.4860%
→ symmetric
125MauritaniaMRT
-2.0465%
-0.9766%
-0.1867%
▼ negative
126MalawiMWI
-2.0762%
-2.4065%
-2.6767%
▼ negative
127DjiboutiDJI
-2.1454%
-1.2855%
-1.0156%
▼ negative
128TurkeyTUR
-2.1760%
-1.3360%
-1.060%
▼ negative
129KazakhstanKAZ
-2.1859%
-1.7159%
-1.5260%
▼ negative
130LiberiaLBR
-2.1862%
-1.7164%
-1.2965%
▼ negative
131SerbiaSRB
-2.1859%
-0.5059%
+0.5260%
▼ negative
132TanzaniaTZA
-2.2059%
-0.6059%
+0.4459%
▼ negative
133HondurasHND
-2.2371%
-1.2072%
-0.5273%
▼ negative
134ComorosCOM
-2.2461%
-1.2864%
-0.8166%
▼ negative
135EcuadorECU
-2.3671%
-1.2272%
-0.3972%
▼ negative
136GabonGAB
-2.3963%
-1.6467%
-1.2070%
→ symmetric
137MexicoMEX
-2.4160%
-1.3860%
-0.9560%
▲ positive
138Sierra LeoneSLE
-2.4166%
-1.8667%
-1.4268%
▼ negative
139NauruNRU
-2.5456%
-1.9858%
-1.7760%
▼ negative
140Solomon IslandsSLB
-2.5660%
-1.9462%
-1.2662%
▼ negative
141Bosnia and HerzegovinaBIH
-2.6869%
-1.3271%
-0.4872%
▼ negative
142EgyptEGY
-2.8060%
-2.0360%
-2.3360%
▼ negative
143Papua New GuineaPNG
-2.8266%
-1.4468%
-0.4669%
▼ negative
144NepalNPL
-2.8872%
-2.7372%
-2.5273%
▼ negative
145AzerbaijanAZE
-2.9959%
-1.9660%
-1.5360%
▼ negative
146UgandaUGA
-3.0560%
-2.4260%
-1.8960%
▼ negative
147NigeriaNGA
-3.2170%
-2.6771%
-2.0172%
▼ negative
148TunisiaTUN
-3.3459%
-2.8160%
-2.9960%
▼ negative
149Guinea-BissauGNB
-3.3965%
-2.1567%
-1.2769%
▼ negative
150CambodiaKHM
-3.4360%
-2.7260%
-2.1060%
▼ negative
151BangladeshBGD
-3.4572%
-3.3272%
-3.1573%
→ symmetric
152BoliviaBOL
-3.6569%
-4.0370%
-4.4271%
▼ negative
153MadagascarMDG
-3.6661%
-2.8364%
-2.2965%
▼ negative
154GuineaGIN
-3.8259%
-2.4959%
-1.7459%
▼ negative
155CameroonCMR
-3.8860%
-2.6160%
-1.7160%
▼ negative
156TajikistanTJK
-3.8856%
-2.4457%
-1.6257%
▼ negative
157AlgeriaDZA
-4.0760%
-3.7060%
-3.6860%
▼ negative
158ChinaCHN
-4.0859%
-3.0359%
-2.9359%
▼ negative
159Republic of the CongoCOG
-4.3159%
-3.1160%
-2.4760%
▼ negative
160EthiopiaETH
-4.5260%
-3.8960%
-3.4260%
▼ negative
161ChadTCD
-4.6260%
-3.4460%
-2.4360%
▼ negative
162BurundiBDI
-4.6553%
-4.2353%
-3.8153%
▼ negative
163MozambiqueMOZ
-4.7059%
-3.8760%
-3.2460%
▼ negative
164AngolaAGO
-4.7760%
-4.3360%
-4.1760%
▼ negative
165NigerNER
-4.8460%
-3.5260%
-2.5660%
▼ negative
166TurkmenistanTKM
-4.9154%
-3.5054%
-2.9255%
▼ negative
167MaliMLI
-5.1360%
-3.9960%
-3.1460%
▼ negative
168Equatorial GuineaGNQ
-5.1458%
-3.5959%
-2.7959%
▼ negative
169PakistanPAK
-5.1560%
-4.4860%
-3.9060%
▼ negative
170Burkina FasoBFA
-5.1960%
-3.6360%
-2.3660%
▼ negative
171Central African RepublicCAF
-5.2055%
-4.3155%
-3.3954%
▼ negative
172IraqIRQ
-5.2358%
-5.1759%
-5.3560%
▼ negative
173BelarusBLR
-5.2960%
-5.2460%
-5.3560%
▼ negative
174RussiaRUS
-5.2958%
-5.6059%
-5.6759%
▼ negative
175SyriaSYR
-5.3360%
-5.0561%
-5.5461%
▲ positive
176United StatesUSA
-5.4673%
-5.4074%
-5.4474%
▼ negative
177LaosLAO
-5.5259%
-5.3160%
-5.3260%
▼ negative
178ZimbabweZWE
-5.6260%
-5.2060%
-4.9760%
▼ negative
179Democratic Republic of the CongoCOD
-5.7760%
-5.0460%
-4.1860%
▼ negative
180LebanonLBN
-5.9072%
-6.2173%
-6.4074%
▼ negative
181SomaliaSOM
-5.9859%
-5.2959%
-4.6759%
▼ negative
182NicaraguaNIC
-6.0960%
-4.3660%
-3.3560%
▼ negative
183LibyaLBY
-6.1654%
-5.6454%
-5.2853%
▼ negative
184CubaCUB
-6.2058%
-5.9959%
-5.8859%
▼ negative
185VenezuelaVEN
-6.2059%
-5.9159%
-6.0859%
▼ negative
186IranIRN
-6.2258%
-6.2959%
-6.7159%
▲ positive
187EritreaERI
-6.2750%
-5.3350%
-4.7750%
▼ negative
188South SudanSSD
-7.2259%
-6.8759%
-6.5859%
▼ negative
189AfghanistanAFG
-7.3260%
-6.6760%
-6.2560%
▼ negative
190MyanmarMMR
-7.6458%
-7.1458%
-6.7658%
▼ negative
191North KoreaPRK
-7.7350%
-7.2950%
-7.0149%
▼ negative
192YemenYEM
-7.7354%
-7.5955%
-7.5055%
▼ negative
193HaitiHTI
-8.4557%
-7.5857%
-7.0457%
▼ negative
194SudanSDN
-9.0160%
-8.5160%
-8.1860%
▼ negative

Headline findings

  • The top of the board is small, stable, and institutionally deep: Norway, Switzerland, and Luxembourg lead living, with Switzerland and Singapore topping the money decisions. They win by having no weak category rather than one standout.
  • The floor is conflict and state collapse - Sudan, Haiti, North Korea, Yemen, Myanmar - where the read is unanimous across all three decisions.
  • The marquee outlier is the United States at living #173: a wealthy democracy in the bottom decile, driven by institutional drift (statistical-agency capture, court defiance, alliance decay) scored on observable actions rather than reputation. On the economic-heavy assets and currency decisions it now scores BELOW China.
  • The 2026 Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure recalibrated the Middle East: the Gulf petrostates drop on the near-term currency and mid-horizon assets decisions (oil/LNG export blockade, regional strikes, attacks and threats on desalination), while the longer-horizon living read moves less.
  • Skew is decision-relevant: a positive-skew recovery cluster (Ukraine, Argentina, Syria) leans up on resolution and reform - Ukraine's war-forged, world-leading drone/EW defense industry is now an emerging export strength - while the negative-skew majors (US, China, Russia) lean down on institutional drift and structural tails.
Outstanding work (4)
  • Track the 2026 Iran war / Strait of Hormuz status (ceasefire durability, strait reopening) and re-score the Gulf exporters + energy importers as the shock resolves or escalates.
  • Re-check the US official-data entanglement discount after each major statistical-agency development (BLS leadership, FOMC behavior, court compliance).
  • Continue monitoring China via independent proxies (electricity, freight, partner customs, foreign-firm earnings); revisit if proxy signals diverge from current estimates.
  • Refresh trade scores as tariff actions and partner diversification evolve (action-driven, faster-moving than structural factors); watch Ukraine's emerging defense-export industry as a positive-skew driver.