ratings · methodology v2.2
Country risk ratings
A forward-looking risk read, not a snapshot of today. Each score (−10 to +10) rates how far you could trust a country over the relevant horizon for three decisions — living there, holding assets there, or holding its currency — each paired with a confidence level and a skew (which way the tail leans). It is not a measure of current quality of life or current asset/currency value. Sort the grid by any decision, or open a country for the full breakdown.
Compare countries → Learn more about the methodology →
- clear positive (≥ +3)
- mixed (−3…+3)
- clear negative (≤ −3)
Personalize this grid →194 countries, ranked by living score
| # | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NorwayNOR | +6.6084% | +6.1185% | +5.8086% | → symmetric |
| 2 | SwitzerlandCHE | +6.5583% | +6.4383% | +6.2884% | → symmetric |
| 3 | LuxembourgLUX | +6.3782% | +5.8583% | +5.4083% | → symmetric |
| 4 | IcelandISL | +5.4679% | +4.7680% | +4.081% | → symmetric |
| 5 | LiechtensteinLIE | +5.3372% | +4.7675% | +4.2678% | ▲ positive |
| 6 | AustriaAUT | +5.0482% | +4.2483% | +3.5184% | → symmetric |
| 7 | DenmarkDNK | +4.9980% | +4.5381% | +4.3881% | → symmetric |
| 8 | SloveniaSVN | +4.8179% | +4.9881% | +4.9583% | → symmetric |
| 9 | FinlandFIN | +4.6081% | +3.7882% | +3.2082% | → symmetric |
| 10 | EstoniaEST | +4.4681% | +3.8082% | +3.3183% | → symmetric |
| 11 | AndorraAND | +4.2772% | +3.4774% | +2.7577% | ▲ positive |
| 12 | MonacoMCO | +4.2268% | +3.6671% | +3.1273% | → symmetric |
| 13 | San MarinoSMR | +4.0568% | +2.6871% | +1.7274% | → symmetric |
| 14 | LithuaniaLTU | +4.0279% | +3.4680% | +3.1981% | → symmetric |
| 15 | UruguayURY | +3.8183% | +3.8084% | +3.7485% | → symmetric |
| 16 | SingaporeSGP | +3.8060% | +5.0760% | +5.5960% | → symmetric |
| 17 | CyprusCYP | +3.7578% | +3.7781% | +4.0883% | → symmetric |
| 18 | SwedenSWE | +3.6777% | +3.6177% | +3.4578% | → symmetric |
| 19 | LatviaLVA | +3.6279% | +3.7881% | +3.9783% | → symmetric |
| 20 | CzechiaCZE | +3.5979% | +3.9682% | +4.1084% | → symmetric |
| 21 | BelgiumBEL | +3.5583% | +3.8685% | +3.5787% | → symmetric |
| 22 | MauritiusMUS | +3.5570% | +3.3571% | +3.0572% | ▲ positive |
| 23 | GreenlandGRL | +3.5367% | +2.7468% | +2.5269% | ▲ positive |
| 24 | NetherlandsNLD | +3.4877% | +3.6179% | +3.6080% | → symmetric |
| 25 | IrelandIRL | +3.3278% | +2.8978% | +3.0479% | → symmetric |
| 26 | SeychellesSYC | +3.2869% | +3.1272% | +3.0775% | ▲ positive |
| 27 | BotswanaBWA | +3.2572% | +2.3375% | +1.7578% | ▼ negative |
| 28 | NamibiaNAM | +3.0771% | +2.7373% | +2.3676% | → symmetric |
| 29 | AustraliaAUS | +2.9977% | +2.5477% | +2.3678% | → symmetric |
| 30 | JapanJPN | +2.9174% | +2.4574% | +2.1374% | ▼ negative |
| 31 | GermanyDEU | +2.8978% | +3.0179% | +2.9780% | → symmetric |
| 32 | ChileCHL | +2.8281% | +3.3183% | +3.5184% | → symmetric |
| 33 | CroatiaHRV | +2.7878% | +3.3981% | +3.7083% | → symmetric |
| 34 | CanadaCAN | +2.7075% | +1.6777% | +0.8278% | → symmetric |
| 35 | PortugalPRT | +2.6877% | +3.1979% | +3.5979% | → symmetric |
| 36 | Costa RicaCRI | +2.6779% | +3.0582% | +3.2083% | → symmetric |
| 37 | FranceFRA | +2.5580% | +2.5581% | +2.0481% | ▼ negative |
| 38 | BarbadosBRB | +2.4678% | +2.1380% | +1.9082% | ▼ negative |
| 39 | GrenadaGRD | +2.4165% | +2.0770% | +2.2274% | ▲ positive |
| 40 | New ZealandNZL | +2.3975% | +2.0975% | +1.8776% | → symmetric |
| 41 | United KingdomGBR | +2.3979% | +2.5681% | +2.2582% | → symmetric |
| 42 | Cabo VerdeCPV | +2.3272% | +1.7174% | +1.4377% | → symmetric |
| 43 | GhanaGHA | +2.3174% | +2.2278% | +2.4881% | → symmetric |
| 44 | ItalyITA | +2.3173% | +2.8874% | +3.1174% | ▼ negative |
| 45 | South KoreaKOR | +2.2174% | +2.2975% | +2.3375% | ▼ negative |
| 46 | PolandPOL | +2.1473% | +2.5274% | +2.4574% | → symmetric |
| 47 | JamaicaJAM | +2.0276% | +2.2879% | +2.2081% | ▼ negative |
| 48 | SpainESP | +1.9578% | +2.3779% | +2.5680% | → symmetric |
| 49 | ArgentinaARG | +1.6373% | +2.1873% | +2.6974% | ▲ positive |
| 50 | Saint Kitts and NevisKNA | +1.5762% | +1.1268% | +0.9172% | → symmetric |
| 51 | The BahamasBHS | +1.5278% | +1.4781% | +1.4382% | ▼ negative |
| 52 | Saint Vincent and the GrenadinesVCT | +1.4463% | +0.7968% | +0.6572% | → symmetric |
| 53 | GreeceGRC | +1.3473% | +2.2474% | +2.8874% | → symmetric |
| 54 | MaltaMLT | +1.2273% | +2.4874% | +3.1374% | → symmetric |
| 55 | Dominican RepublicDOM | +1.1577% | +1.7580% | +2.1782% | ▲ positive |
| 56 | Saint LuciaLCA | +1.1462% | +0.7765% | +0.8468% | → symmetric |
| 57 | MalaysiaMYS | +1.1272% | +2.0172% | +2.2773% | → symmetric |
| 58 | BelizeBLZ | +1.1163% | +0.6366% | +0.6869% | ▲ positive |
| 59 | RomaniaROU | +1.074% | +1.3878% | +1.3481% | ▼ negative |
| 60 | IsraelISR | +0.9370% | +0.8072% | +0.7673% | ▼ negative |
| 61 | DominicaDMA | +0.9060% | +0.5367% | +0.5170% | ▼ negative |
| 62 | QatarQAT | +0.9060% | +1.0660% | -0.1560% | ▼ negative |
| 63 | PalauPLW | +0.8364% | +0.2268% | -0.0172% | ▲ positive |
| 64 | HungaryHUN | +0.8270% | +0.7572% | +0.4373% | ▲ positive |
| 65 | AlbaniaALB | +0.7569% | +2.0570% | +2.8771% | → symmetric |
| 66 | Antigua and BarbudaATG | +0.7358% | +0.4861% | +0.5463% | → symmetric |
| 67 | ArmeniaARM | +0.7166% | +0.7369% | +1.0872% | ▼ negative |
| 68 | BhutanBTN | +0.6266% | -0.2268% | -0.6269% | ▲ positive |
| 69 | MoroccoMAR | +0.6172% | +1.5973% | +2.1974% | → symmetric |
| 70 | Trinidad and TobagoTTO | +0.5971% | +0.3572% | +0.1173% | ▼ negative |
| 71 | ZambiaZMB | +0.5769% | +1.1571% | +1.7272% | → symmetric |
| 72 | MontenegroMNE | +0.5374% | +0.7879% | +0.5682% | ▲ positive |
| 73 | FijiFJI | +0.5167% | +0.7470% | +0.8972% | → symmetric |
| 74 | São Tomé and PríncipeSTP | +0.5164% | +0.1269% | -0.0674% | ▲ positive |
| 75 | SlovakiaSVK | +0.4772% | +1.0273% | +1.1974% | ▼ negative |
| 76 | OmanOMN | +0.4259% | +1.0360% | +0.7960% | ▼ negative |
| 77 | South AfricaZAF | +0.4178% | +0.9379% | +1.3881% | ▼ negative |
| 78 | Sri LankaLKA | +0.4068% | +0.7270% | +0.6871% | → symmetric |
| 79 | MoldovaMDA | +0.3867% | +0.3870% | +0.5973% | → symmetric |
| 80 | SamoaWSM | +0.3063% | +0.4565% | +0.9066% | → symmetric |
| 81 | SenegalSEN | +0.2868% | +0.2270% | +0.1172% | → symmetric |
| 82 | ParaguayPRY | +0.1672% | +1.2273% | +2.2073% | → symmetric |
| 83 | United Arab EmiratesARE | +0.1059% | +0.3260% | -0.4260% | ▼ negative |
| 84 | GuyanaGUY | +0.0266% | +0.8567% | +1.8068% | → symmetric |
| 85 | North MacedoniaMKD | +0.0272% | +1.1173% | +1.7274% | → symmetric |
| 86 | The GambiaGMB | +0.0165% | +0.3467% | +0.6968% | ▲ positive |
| 87 | UkraineUKR | -0.1366% | -1.1068% | -1.5869% | ▲ positive |
| 88 | IndonesiaIDN | -0.1470% | +1.0571% | +1.8572% | → symmetric |
| 89 | Côte d'IvoireCIV | -0.2869% | +0.6871% | +1.1373% | → symmetric |
| 90 | BulgariaBGR | -0.3072% | +1.4473% | +2.6374% | → symmetric |
| 91 | Marshall IslandsMHL | -0.3361% | -0.6564% | -0.6267% | ▼ negative |
| 92 | PanamaPAN | -0.3370% | -0.6971% | -1.3472% | ▼ negative |
| 93 | BrazilBRA | -0.4371% | -0.1572% | -0.0773% | ▼ negative |
| 94 | SurinameSUR | -0.5066% | -0.6868% | -1.2370% | ▲ positive |
| 95 | ThailandTHA | -0.5173% | +0.8473% | +1.3474% | ▼ negative |
| 96 | MongoliaMNG | -0.6765% | -1.3166% | -1.2468% | → symmetric |
| 97 | Federated States of MicronesiaFSM | -0.7559% | -0.4762% | -0.3364% | → symmetric |
| 98 | VietnamVNM | -0.7860% | +0.2260% | +0.7660% | → symmetric |
| 99 | BeninBEN | -0.8169% | +0.2571% | +1.0173% | ▼ negative |
| 100 | KenyaKEN | -0.8170% | +0.2572% | +0.7972% | → symmetric |
| 101 | KuwaitKWT | -0.8160% | -0.4360% | -1.1560% | ▼ negative |
| 102 | PeruPER | -0.8872% | +1.2173% | +2.6873% | → symmetric |
| 103 | TuvaluTUV | -0.9053% | -0.7558% | -0.6160% | ▼ negative |
| 104 | LesothoLSO | -0.9363% | -0.3765% | +0.0168% | ▼ negative |
| 105 | RwandaRWA | -0.9560% | -1.3360% | -1.6160% | ▼ negative |
| 106 | VanuatuVUT | -1.061% | -1.2365% | -1.1667% | ▼ negative |
| 107 | ColombiaCOL | -1.0472% | -0.9073% | -0.4373% | → symmetric |
| 108 | Saudi ArabiaSAU | -1.0460% | -1.0160% | -2.0360% | ▼ negative |
| 109 | BruneiBRN | -1.0759% | -0.8959% | -1.2160% | ▼ negative |
| 110 | IndiaIND | -1.1871% | -0.4872% | -0.1173% | → symmetric |
| 111 | BahrainBHR | -1.2560% | -0.5660% | -1.0660% | ▼ negative |
| 112 | GuatemalaGTM | -1.2973% | +0.4373% | +1.5574% | → symmetric |
| 113 | El SalvadorSLV | -1.4059% | +0.5660% | +1.3460% | → symmetric |
| 114 | UzbekistanUZB | -1.4069% | -0.8370% | -0.4572% | → symmetric |
| 115 | Timor-LesteTLS | -1.4568% | -1.9973% | -2.1676% | ▼ negative |
| 116 | TongaTON | -1.4659% | -1.5162% | -1.3263% | ▼ negative |
| 117 | GeorgiaGEO | -1.4858% | -0.3059% | +0.5559% | ▼ negative |
| 118 | TogoTGO | -1.5967% | -0.3669% | +0.2671% | ▼ negative |
| 119 | KyrgyzstanKGZ | -1.7562% | -0.8863% | -0.2264% | ▼ negative |
| 120 | PhilippinesPHL | -1.8870% | -1.2171% | -0.8071% | → symmetric |
| 121 | MaldivesMDV | -1.9066% | -1.7269% | -2.0471% | ▼ negative |
| 122 | EswatiniSWZ | -1.9158% | -0.9259% | -0.6959% | ▼ negative |
| 123 | KiribatiKIR | -1.9356% | -1.6560% | -1.4463% | ▼ negative |
| 124 | JordanJOR | -1.9660% | -1.3660% | -1.4860% | → symmetric |
| 125 | MauritaniaMRT | -2.0465% | -0.9766% | -0.1867% | ▼ negative |
| 126 | MalawiMWI | -2.0762% | -2.4065% | -2.6767% | ▼ negative |
| 127 | DjiboutiDJI | -2.1454% | -1.2855% | -1.0156% | ▼ negative |
| 128 | TurkeyTUR | -2.1760% | -1.3360% | -1.060% | ▼ negative |
| 129 | KazakhstanKAZ | -2.1859% | -1.7159% | -1.5260% | ▼ negative |
| 130 | LiberiaLBR | -2.1862% | -1.7164% | -1.2965% | ▼ negative |
| 131 | SerbiaSRB | -2.1859% | -0.5059% | +0.5260% | ▼ negative |
| 132 | TanzaniaTZA | -2.2059% | -0.6059% | +0.4459% | ▼ negative |
| 133 | HondurasHND | -2.2371% | -1.2072% | -0.5273% | ▼ negative |
| 134 | ComorosCOM | -2.2461% | -1.2864% | -0.8166% | ▼ negative |
| 135 | EcuadorECU | -2.3671% | -1.2272% | -0.3972% | ▼ negative |
| 136 | GabonGAB | -2.3963% | -1.6467% | -1.2070% | → symmetric |
| 137 | MexicoMEX | -2.4160% | -1.3860% | -0.9560% | ▲ positive |
| 138 | Sierra LeoneSLE | -2.4166% | -1.8667% | -1.4268% | ▼ negative |
| 139 | NauruNRU | -2.5456% | -1.9858% | -1.7760% | ▼ negative |
| 140 | Solomon IslandsSLB | -2.5660% | -1.9462% | -1.2662% | ▼ negative |
| 141 | Bosnia and HerzegovinaBIH | -2.6869% | -1.3271% | -0.4872% | ▼ negative |
| 142 | EgyptEGY | -2.8060% | -2.0360% | -2.3360% | ▼ negative |
| 143 | Papua New GuineaPNG | -2.8266% | -1.4468% | -0.4669% | ▼ negative |
| 144 | NepalNPL | -2.8872% | -2.7372% | -2.5273% | ▼ negative |
| 145 | AzerbaijanAZE | -2.9959% | -1.9660% | -1.5360% | ▼ negative |
| 146 | UgandaUGA | -3.0560% | -2.4260% | -1.8960% | ▼ negative |
| 147 | NigeriaNGA | -3.2170% | -2.6771% | -2.0172% | ▼ negative |
| 148 | TunisiaTUN | -3.3459% | -2.8160% | -2.9960% | ▼ negative |
| 149 | Guinea-BissauGNB | -3.3965% | -2.1567% | -1.2769% | ▼ negative |
| 150 | CambodiaKHM | -3.4360% | -2.7260% | -2.1060% | ▼ negative |
| 151 | BangladeshBGD | -3.4572% | -3.3272% | -3.1573% | → symmetric |
| 152 | BoliviaBOL | -3.6569% | -4.0370% | -4.4271% | ▼ negative |
| 153 | MadagascarMDG | -3.6661% | -2.8364% | -2.2965% | ▼ negative |
| 154 | GuineaGIN | -3.8259% | -2.4959% | -1.7459% | ▼ negative |
| 155 | CameroonCMR | -3.8860% | -2.6160% | -1.7160% | ▼ negative |
| 156 | TajikistanTJK | -3.8856% | -2.4457% | -1.6257% | ▼ negative |
| 157 | AlgeriaDZA | -4.0760% | -3.7060% | -3.6860% | ▼ negative |
| 158 | ChinaCHN | -4.0859% | -3.0359% | -2.9359% | ▼ negative |
| 159 | Republic of the CongoCOG | -4.3159% | -3.1160% | -2.4760% | ▼ negative |
| 160 | EthiopiaETH | -4.5260% | -3.8960% | -3.4260% | ▼ negative |
| 161 | ChadTCD | -4.6260% | -3.4460% | -2.4360% | ▼ negative |
| 162 | BurundiBDI | -4.6553% | -4.2353% | -3.8153% | ▼ negative |
| 163 | MozambiqueMOZ | -4.7059% | -3.8760% | -3.2460% | ▼ negative |
| 164 | AngolaAGO | -4.7760% | -4.3360% | -4.1760% | ▼ negative |
| 165 | NigerNER | -4.8460% | -3.5260% | -2.5660% | ▼ negative |
| 166 | TurkmenistanTKM | -4.9154% | -3.5054% | -2.9255% | ▼ negative |
| 167 | MaliMLI | -5.1360% | -3.9960% | -3.1460% | ▼ negative |
| 168 | Equatorial GuineaGNQ | -5.1458% | -3.5959% | -2.7959% | ▼ negative |
| 169 | PakistanPAK | -5.1560% | -4.4860% | -3.9060% | ▼ negative |
| 170 | Burkina FasoBFA | -5.1960% | -3.6360% | -2.3660% | ▼ negative |
| 171 | Central African RepublicCAF | -5.2055% | -4.3155% | -3.3954% | ▼ negative |
| 172 | IraqIRQ | -5.2358% | -5.1759% | -5.3560% | ▼ negative |
| 173 | BelarusBLR | -5.2960% | -5.2460% | -5.3560% | ▼ negative |
| 174 | RussiaRUS | -5.2958% | -5.6059% | -5.6759% | ▼ negative |
| 175 | SyriaSYR | -5.3360% | -5.0561% | -5.5461% | ▲ positive |
| 176 | United StatesUSA | -5.4673% | -5.4074% | -5.4474% | ▼ negative |
| 177 | LaosLAO | -5.5259% | -5.3160% | -5.3260% | ▼ negative |
| 178 | ZimbabweZWE | -5.6260% | -5.2060% | -4.9760% | ▼ negative |
| 179 | Democratic Republic of the CongoCOD | -5.7760% | -5.0460% | -4.1860% | ▼ negative |
| 180 | LebanonLBN | -5.9072% | -6.2173% | -6.4074% | ▼ negative |
| 181 | SomaliaSOM | -5.9859% | -5.2959% | -4.6759% | ▼ negative |
| 182 | NicaraguaNIC | -6.0960% | -4.3660% | -3.3560% | ▼ negative |
| 183 | LibyaLBY | -6.1654% | -5.6454% | -5.2853% | ▼ negative |
| 184 | CubaCUB | -6.2058% | -5.9959% | -5.8859% | ▼ negative |
| 185 | VenezuelaVEN | -6.2059% | -5.9159% | -6.0859% | ▼ negative |
| 186 | IranIRN | -6.2258% | -6.2959% | -6.7159% | ▲ positive |
| 187 | EritreaERI | -6.2750% | -5.3350% | -4.7750% | ▼ negative |
| 188 | South SudanSSD | -7.2259% | -6.8759% | -6.5859% | ▼ negative |
| 189 | AfghanistanAFG | -7.3260% | -6.6760% | -6.2560% | ▼ negative |
| 190 | MyanmarMMR | -7.6458% | -7.1458% | -6.7658% | ▼ negative |
| 191 | North KoreaPRK | -7.7350% | -7.2950% | -7.0149% | ▼ negative |
| 192 | YemenYEM | -7.7354% | -7.5955% | -7.5055% | ▼ negative |
| 193 | HaitiHTI | -8.4557% | -7.5857% | -7.0457% | ▼ negative |
| 194 | SudanSDN | -9.0160% | -8.5160% | -8.1860% | ▼ negative |
Headline findings
- The top of the board is small, stable, and institutionally deep: Norway, Switzerland, and Luxembourg lead living, with Switzerland and Singapore topping the money decisions. They win by having no weak category rather than one standout.
- The floor is conflict and state collapse - Sudan, Haiti, North Korea, Yemen, Myanmar - where the read is unanimous across all three decisions.
- The marquee outlier is the United States at living #173: a wealthy democracy in the bottom decile, driven by institutional drift (statistical-agency capture, court defiance, alliance decay) scored on observable actions rather than reputation. On the economic-heavy assets and currency decisions it now scores BELOW China.
- The 2026 Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz closure recalibrated the Middle East: the Gulf petrostates drop on the near-term currency and mid-horizon assets decisions (oil/LNG export blockade, regional strikes, attacks and threats on desalination), while the longer-horizon living read moves less.
- Skew is decision-relevant: a positive-skew recovery cluster (Ukraine, Argentina, Syria) leans up on resolution and reform - Ukraine's war-forged, world-leading drone/EW defense industry is now an emerging export strength - while the negative-skew majors (US, China, Russia) lean down on institutional drift and structural tails.
Outstanding work (4)
- Track the 2026 Iran war / Strait of Hormuz status (ceasefire durability, strait reopening) and re-score the Gulf exporters + energy importers as the shock resolves or escalates.
- Re-check the US official-data entanglement discount after each major statistical-agency development (BLS leadership, FOMC behavior, court compliance).
- Continue monitoring China via independent proxies (electricity, freight, partner customs, foreign-firm earnings); revisit if proxy signals diverge from current estimates.
- Refresh trade scores as tariff actions and partner diversification evolve (action-driven, faster-moving than structural factors); watch Ukraine's emerging defense-export industry as a positive-skew driver.