brazil first round
Brazil first-round election goes to a runoff
Brazil's first-round general election was held Oct 4 (Lula against Flavio Bolsonaro) with no majority and a runoff set for Oct 25, an orderly process; the institutions functioned.
The Mild Take
Coverage tagged: Brazil (BRA)
Every story tagged to Brazil in the reporting behind our ratings, newest first. State-self-reported sources are excluded from scoring; non-anglophone coverage is surfaced in translation. Every card links to its source.
9 stories, newest first - 1 on this page in translation
stf moraes frozen
Brazil's Supreme Court postpones decision on Moraes probe
The STF closed its Sept 15 session without deciding whether to probe Justice Moraes over Banco Master intercepts; Justice Dino took a 90-day review while Gilmar Mendes attempted to merge related probes.
stf banco master crisis
Bolsonaro ties Lula as Brazil court crisis energizes right
A Quaest poll puts Flavio Bolsonaro level with Lula at 41% each for an October runoff, with the court crisis read as energizing the right. A judicial scandal converting into polling movement weeks before a national election couples the institutional problem to the electoral one.
brazil election narrowing
Senator Flavio Bolsonaro vows to respect Brazil election outcome
Lula's polling lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro narrowed through late August ahead of October's election, with Datafolha and Quaest converging, and Flavio publicly vowed on Aug 29 to respect the outcome. A tightening race plus an explicit commitment to accept the result is a well-observed but unmoved stability level.
campaign launch
Brazil: Lula, Bolsonaro return to strongholds to launch runs for president
Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro formally launched near-tied campaigns Aug 16 (Quaest 43-40 narrowing; first round Oct 4). High-stakes but institutionally normal so far; stability held with the WTO Section-301 consultation clock running in the background.
brazil wto consultations
Lula calls new US tariffs a strategic mistake; Brazil requests WTO consultations
Lula's July 26 Washington Post op-ed called the July 16 Section 301 tariffs (12.5-37.5%, making Brazil the second-most-tariffed US partner) 'unfair and a strategic mistake', and Brazil formally requested WTO dispute consultations July 28. The July 16 action was missed by the prior sweep and is booked late with the in-window response: Brazil trade near -2 to -5.
brazil lula lead
Lula expands lead over Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election
A new Quaest poll put Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro 45-37 in a simulated runoff (up from a 6-point lead) amid the rule-of-law confrontation with Washington. An institutional-continuity signal; watch-item, no score moved this pass.
brazil section301 deadline
Brazil anticipates fresh US tariffs on domestic products
Brazil is bracing for the US Section 301 decision due July 15 (25% on 4,100+ product lines worth ~$14.9B) with no deal reached as of July 14 despite four USTR meetings and a CNI/AmCham two-stage proposal. Outside-window decision not pre-scored: Brazil trade held at near -2.
brazil us tariff deadline
Brazil's Senator Bolsonaro Argues Against 25% US Tariff on Its Exports
As a July 15 US Section 301 decision on 25% tariffs (exempting beef/coffee/aircraft) approaches, Flavio Bolsonaro lobbied Washington to delay it before Brazil's October election. Brazil trade_actions_capacity held near -2 (threat active, not imposed).