opec output steady
OPEC+ set to keep output targets steady
OPEC+ kept November output targets unchanged and delayed its 2027 capacity review amid Iran-war supply disruption. Context for the exporter fiscal picture, no single-country score move.
The Mild Take
Coverage tagged: Iraq (IRQ)
Every story tagged to Iraq in the reporting behind our ratings, newest first. State-self-reported sources are excluded from scoring; non-anglophone coverage is surfaced in translation. Every card links to its source.
15 stories, newest first - 0 on this page in translation
iraq toughest budget
Oil squeeze pushes Iraq towards toughest budget in decades
Iraq faces its toughest budget in decades as the Hormuz squeeze chokes crude exports; September exports averaged about 2.6m bpd with shipments rerouted outside Hormuz.
petroline shutdown
Drones from Iraq strike Saudi East-West Petroline; kingdom shuts pipeline
Drones launched from Maysan province in Iraq struck Petroline pumping stations in Riyadh and Madinah regions on Sept 11. Saudi Arabia shut the pipeline Sept 12 with no restart date, removing the bypass that had carried roughly 5M bpd while Hormuz was effectively closed.
five country retaliation
US attacks kill 12 in Iran as Tehran strikes bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Iraq
Iran retaliated on Sept 2 against US-linked bases across four countries simultaneously: Camp Titin and Prince Hassan airbase in Jordan, Sheikh Isa in Bahrain, Ali al-Salem in Kuwait, and Erbil in Iraq. The single-window widening of the war to five territories is the structural fact scored here. Casualty counts on every side are contested between US, Iranian and host-government statements and are not used as levels.
iraq coalition withdrawal
Iraq prime minister rejects extension of international coalition presence beyond 30 September
PM al-Zaidi rejected any extension of the US-led coalition presence past the Sept 30 withdrawal deadline, calling it fixed and final. Middle East Monitor carries a known editorial slant and the item is corroborated across several outlets. Ending the coalition mid-war removes the mechanism through which Baghdad has balanced Washington and Tehran.
militia disarmament conditions
Iranian-backed militia in Iraq sets conditions for disarmament
Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada published ten preconditions for placing its weapons under state control, including US and Turkish withdrawal and legal protections for the PMF. An armed group negotiating the terms on which the state may hold a monopoly on force is that monopoly failing. Partially offset by a 15-year sentence against a Kataib Hezbollah member for kidnapping journalist Shelly Kittelson.
iraq militia test
Iraq arrests senior PMF figure amid disarmament push
Iraqi CTS arrested Nujaba intelligence chief Abbas al-Yaqoubi under judicial warrant Aug 17 in connection with drone attacks on US interests; after the militia threatened to 'burn Baghdad', a Karkh court dropped the charges and he was released within about a day. The arrest shows intent, the release under threat shows the ceiling; the Sept 30 disarmament deadline is the live test.
khor mor restart
Dana Gas resumes production at Kurdistan's Khor Mor field
Dana Gas began a phased restart at Khor Mor after KRG and federal security assurances, reversing the full suspension that followed the Erbil-area drone strikes; current output against the ~450-500M scf/day pre-war baseline is not yet verified. Iraq's trade score improved near -9 to -8 on the partial recovery.
diyala strikes contested toll
Western Sources Say Six Iranian Advisers Killed in Iraq Strikes
The toll of the ~July 29 joint US-Saudi strikes on PMF camps in Diyala is booked as a contested 4-20 range: a US official told NYT ~20 Iranian advisers, PMF contacts said 5, Tehran confirmed 4 IRGC members, and the PMF claims 20+ of its own dead; every count originates from an interested party. Kataib Hezbollah's Aug 6 retaliation deadline passed without a realized mega-attack in-window.
joint us saudi iraq strikes
US and Saudi Arabia strike Tehran-backed militia sites in eastern Iraq
Joint US-Saudi airstrikes hit militia logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq July 29, killing at least 20 fighters including 6 Iranian advisers per two Iraqi militia officials, in response to militia drone attacks on Saudi Arabia; hours earlier Iran fired ballistic missiles at Jordan-based US forces. Iraq's soil now struck by both sides: Iraq conflict held near -9; drove Saudi conflict near -6 to -7 and US conflict near -6 to -7.
kurdistan energy exit
Pro-Iran militia drone strikes shut oilfields in Iraqi Kurdistan, cut output to 150,000 bpd
Eight one-way drones targeted Erbil (~July 22) and Dana Gas became the first major energy company to suspend Kurdistan operations; militia strikes have cut KRI output to ~150,000 bpd in defiance of Baghdad. Drove Iraq trade near -8 to -9.
hormuz insurance shock
Middle East shipping insurance costs rise on Hormuz risks
Additional war-risk premiums for Hormuz jumped from 1-3% to 7.5-10% of hull value ($3M-$10M per $100M tanker; ~$21M on a VLCC), Gulf-to-China tanker freight hit 4x its 5-year average, and Hormuz transits collapsed to ~10 vessels a day against a 120-140 pre-war norm. The realized cost regime behind the Gulf trade scores; corroborates, holds.
us fatalities identified
Pentagon identifies American soldiers killed in Iranian attack in Jordan
The Pentagon named 1st Lt. Tyler Feehan and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales (killed at Muwaffaq Salti, Jordan) and Sgt. Michael Swinton (killed in Iraq detonating a drone); ~100 US troops injured over two weeks (96% returned to duty) surfaced only after a NYT report. US war deaths ~17. US conflict held near -6 (scored last pass).
kurdistan oilfield strikes
Drone attacks target oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan
A wave of drone attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields from July 14 (DNO's Tawke hit twice and suspended, Khurmala and Sarsang targeted) cut ~140-150k bpd; the US-led coalition intercepted militia drones over Erbil and a US soldier died detonating a downed Iranian drone. Drove Iraq conflict near -8 to -9 and held trade near -8.
iraq dollar controls militia deadline
Iraq agrees to US demands to halt dollar flows to Iran-backed militias: Report
Per WSJ (July 8), Iraq agreed to US-demanded controls on dollar flows to Iran-aligned militias in exchange for restored dollar shipments; PM al-Zaidi set a Sept 30 militia-disarmament deadline that the Islamic Resistance publicly refused. Iraq conflict held near -8 (internal-security tension) and monetary_independence held at -4 (liquidity positive).