Top stories, by evaluation weight
The same reporting behind our ratings, ranked by how much it moved our evaluation rather than by recency. State-self-reported sources are excluded from scoring; non-anglophone coverage is surfaced in translation. Every card links to its source.
526 stories, heaviest first - 3 on this page in translation
The Pentagon confirmed the DC National Guard deployment through Inauguration Day 2029 (~2,000+ troops); US District Judge Jia Cobb heard the DC AG's removal injunction July 17 and made no ruling. The 2029 pre-commitment confirmed + a live injunction: held US rule_of_law at -6, confidence up.
The IMF projects ~68.9% average 2026 inflation and a ~6.1% real GDP contraction as the rial sets record lows (~1.4-1.5M rial/USD); Iran's own CBI (83.1%) and Statistical Centre (88.6%) figures disagree and are direction-only. Re-anchored Iran inflation on an independent (IMF) basis; held at -8, confidence up.
Cuba's grid suffered its fifth total collapse of 2026 (third in 15 days) July 14 after a Felton Unit 1 shutdown cascaded to full disconnection; daily blackouts now average 20-24 hours, some areas past 72 hours. Cubadebate restoration claims are state (direction only). Held Cuba infrastructure at the -9 floor, confidence up.
Houthi missile/drone attacks forced the closure of four southern Saudi airports (Abha, Jizan, Najran, Sharurah) around July 13-14, the first major Houthi-Saudi escalation since the 2022 ceasefire. Corroborates the Saudi conflict downgrade; EASA airspace advisory corroborates.
Abu Dhabi's ADX fell 0.56% and Dubai's DFM 1.51% in early-July trading; cumulative Dubai/Abu Dhabi market losses reached ~$120bn since the Feb war began. UAE conflict_involvement held near -6 (confidence up on realized transmission).
The IMF confirmed July 9 that Georgieva and interim president Rodriguez discussed Venezuela tapping ~$4.2bn in unused SDRs plus a ~$650m RFI tranche for quake reconstruction - re-engagement after years shut out. Venezuela fiscal_state held near -8 (a modest positive noted).
Iran's official inflation hit 88.6% y/y in June (from ~83.9% in May), the rial slid to ~1.82M/USD by July 10, and the IMF projects a 6.1% GDP contraction. Iran inflation held at the -8 floor; regime CBI/SCI figures used for direction, cross-checked against market trackers and the IMF.
Per WSJ (July 8), Iraq agreed to US-demanded controls on dollar flows to Iran-aligned militias in exchange for restored dollar shipments; PM al-Zaidi set a Sept 30 militia-disarmament deadline that the Islamic Resistance publicly refused. Iraq conflict held near -8 (internal-security tension) and monetary_independence held at -4 (liquidity positive).
The chavista Assembly kept invoking post-quake 'unity/stability' rather than convening the constitutionally mandated election as Rodriguez's interim mandate lapsed; opposition leader Machado faces friction with Washington over returning. Venezuela rule_of_law held at -8 (crisis unresolved).
The large-scale reciprocal border mobilization reported around July 8 continued with NO independently confirmed escalation to open fighting and no confirmed de-escalation through July 14 - the situation is frozen at high mobilization. Ethiopia conflict held at -9 and Eritrea at -8; no score change without a verified in-window event.
As a July 15 US Section 301 decision on 25% tariffs (exempting beef/coffee/aircraft) approaches, Flavio Bolsonaro lobbied Washington to delay it before Brazil's October election. Brazil trade_actions_capacity held near -2 (threat active, not imposed).
A TTP attack killed nine police at a Balochistan dam project (July 7); China-mediated Pakistan-Afghanistan talks remained stalled. Pakistan conflict held at -7.
A federal judge (S.D. Ohio) ordered USCIS to resume frozen green-card/work-permit processing (order July 6, reported July 7), with work-permit decisions due within 30 days - a functioning judicial check. Offsets the institutional negatives; US rule_of_law held at -5.
Wind-down-only GL X1 expires 12:01am EDT July 17 with no extension or relief reported through July 14; no new Iranian-oil transactions permitted. Corroborates the Iran sanctions floor alongside the blockade.
New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei did not appear publicly during his assassinated father's dayslong state funeral (July 4-9) staged to project strength - an opacity/fragility signal mid-war. Iran alliance_reliability held at -5.
Trump called the Fed board 'hostile' on July 3, resuming rate-cut pressure as inflation topped 4%, even after Chair Warsh's hawkish June hold asserted independence. Mixed signal; US monetary_fed_independence held near -4.
M23 suspended the Qatar-mediated negotiations, accusing Kinshasa of violating the Declaration of Principles, and expelled a Congolese official from ceasefire verification, with fresh Wazalendo clashes near Kavumu and an army drone strike near Nyabiondo; Goma and Bukavu remain M23-held with 7M+ displaced. A diplomatic setback layered on a severe baseline that the Ebola response must now run through.
Attribution for the July 29 Damietta port drone fires stayed unresolved: WSJ's unnamed Egyptian officials blamed Iran, Egypt's information ministry publicly denied that, and Iran's FM called it a false flag; no repeat strike on Egyptian soil followed in-window. The strike is verified, its author is not; Egypt's conflict score held.
Central banks bought a net 288.9t of gold in Q2 2026 (+62% y/y) into a 16% price drop, led by Poland (51t) and China (33t), and 74% of WGC-surveyed central banks expect to hold less USD in reserves within five years, citing the 2022 Russian-reserve freeze as the credibility event; Russia was a net seller (-22t) to plug its deficit. WGC data through a bullish-gold outlet; numbers read, framing discounted.
Brent topped $90/bbl (highest in over a month) on the tanker attacks, Houthi blockade and 10th night of strikes, with ~20M bpd transiting Hormuz; US average gas topped $4/gallon July 20 and Goldman warned of $120 if Hormuz disruption persists into Q4. Macro context for Gulf exporters and importers.
India summoned Russia's charge d'affaires after a July 19 strike hit the MV Golden Leo near Odesa, killing four of five Indian crew - the first Indian seafarer deaths of the war; India's MEA called it 'unacceptable' while the Kremlin said strikes continue. Friction with a cultivated non-aligned partner: Russia alliance held at -6 (noted strain).
Over 400 Kenyans were repatriated from South Africa July 18 amid the anti-immigrant crackdown and xenophobic-violence fears, extending the deportation campaign's regional/diplomatic cost. Watch-item corroborating the prior pass's South Africa treatment_non_citizens move; no score moved this pass.
Twirwaneho took and lost Kipupu within 48 hours (July 13-14) as M23 kept ~5 drone strikes/day, but the UNSC sanctioned six individuals + two entities (incl. Twirwaneho and M23's AFC wing) July 14, FARDC returned to Goma for ceasefire monitoring, and the fifth Joint Security Coordination Mechanism met in Geneva. Held DRC conflict at -9.
The Kerch Strait / Don-Azov Canal shipping halt (from July 10, under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign) persisted with no reopening through July 20; ~25% of Russia's wheat exports normally transit the Azov, with Euronext wheat at a 6-week high. Ukrainian vessel counts (116-136) flagged, not scored. Held Russia trade at -7.
Follow-through on the OCCRP/Irish Times investigation: Ireland says it will cooperate if the Commission proposes alumina sanctions; the Irish government's own probe into the plant's Russian-linked exports is due within days. Watch-item; no score moved.
M23-allied Twirwaneho captured Point Zero (July 4), Mulima (July 6) and Kipupu, capital of Itombwe sector (July 10) in South Kivu with drone strikes on FARDC/Burundian positions; UN rights chief Turk deplored continued clashes - no evidence of Washington Accords compliance. DR Congo conflict held at -9.
The rupee traded ~95.3-95.6/USD through July 8-10 after RBI dollar sales defended the record-low breach (superseding the prior pass's ~96.8 intraday figure), with reserves ~$681-690B under an oil shock adding over $60B/yr to the import bill; the commerce ministry's claim that the US trade-deal framework is 'ready' is a government claim, noted not scored. India monetary held at 4 with confidence up.
The regime annulled the professional licenses of at least 2,000 lawyers without explanation (reported July 9) - a mass disbarment stripping the last practical layer of legal defense. Nicaragua rule_of_law held at -9 (near floor) with confidence up.
Modi's July 6-8 Indonesia visit produced 20 MOUs (incl. BrahMos cooperation) and Indonesia's top civilian honor, deepening SE Asia ties. India alliance_reliability held at 1 (partly offsetting US-deal friction).
The 21st package's 218 designations, bank, payment and crypto transaction bans and A7 stablecoin-network measures take effect on staggered dates of Aug 13 and Aug 23, with private-sector compliance broadening (Apple and Google delisted sanctioned-bank apps); the oil price cap stands as booked at $44.10, frozen for a year at the July 23 adoption. The 22nd package is not expected before October.
A 'fairly large' July 27 intervention lifted the rupee from ~96.15 to 95.78/USD, its best day since mid-June, after an estimated $8-9B of dollar sales across spot and NDF July 17-21 (banker estimates, unofficial) near the 96.96 record low, against a ~90%-imported-oil shock. Managed stress, credibly executed: monetary independence held at 3 with confidence up.
Typhoon Noul made landfall on the Guangdong coast July 26, the strongest landfall in China this year, with hundreds of thousands evacuated per Chinese state authorities (direction only). No score moved; noted for the climate picture.
Confirmed mpox cases reached 3,022 per the July 23 official report; the sourcing chain is state-controlled throughout (UAE state agency relaying Chinese state wire relaying ministry data), so direction only, no score moved.
Congress passed the centerpiece of Kast's program July 22: a phased corporate rate cut from 27% to 23%, capital-repatriation incentives and a compensation mechanism for court-overturned permits, against a weak backdrop (Q1 GDP -0.5%, unemployment 9.4%). A deputy finance minister who failed a drug test was replaced within a day. Governability functioning: political stability held at 3 with confidence up.
Mozambican + Rwandan forces mounted an offensive to retake the Catupa base (out of government control since Jan 2026) as Rwanda reinforced past 2,000 RDF personnel; a competing read holds Islamic State Mozambique is consolidating a >100km coastal enclave, with ~300,000 displaced since July. Held Mozambique conflict at -7.
37 heads of state/government met in Paris July 13 (Macron, Starmer, Merz co-chairing, Zelensky present) focused on Ukraine's air defense: SAMP/T batteries and 16 Rafale jets pledged, with Ukrainian co-pilots flying Mirage jets in the July 14 Bastille Day flyover as concrete implementation. Corroborates the Ukraine alliance move.
The spread held in the ~400-405bp 8-year-low band through the window, moving on global energy volatility rather than domestic factors, with the new $2B Bonar 2029 auction receiving offers July 15 (outside window, not scored). Argentina fiscal held at near 6.
JNIM and the Tuareg-led FLA besieged the Malian army/Africa Corps garrison at Anefis (Kidal) for six days (July 4-9), part of coordinated attacks across Mali/Niger/Burkina Faso. Mali and Burkina Faso conflict held at -8; the junta's '100+ militants killed' claim is excluded state framing.
The IMF projected Pakistan's FY27 growth at 3.5% (below the 4% target) with inflation rising to 8.4%, citing Iran-war spillover. Pakistan fiscal_state held at -5.
Government/Africa Corps forces retook Anefis around July 8-9 after the six-day JNIM-FLA siege, with air support from Gao; the junta/Russian claims of ~100 militants killed in July 13-14 mopping-up (RT/Pravda) are self-reports and excluded from scoring. Mali conflict held at -8 with confidence up on the corroborated sequence.