Top stories, by evaluation weight
The same reporting behind our ratings, ranked by how much it moved our evaluation rather than by recency. State-self-reported sources are excluded from scoring; non-anglophone coverage is surfaced in translation. Every card links to its source.
621 stories, heaviest first - 1 on this page in translation
The 2027 draft budget raised military spending about 27% to 17.1tn rubles, the highest since the invasion, and added a windfall tax on metals and mining to cover the deficit.
Georgian Dream moved to add Gakharia's For Georgia to its opposition-ban list, now covering all five major parliamentary parties. The country is already in the opaque transparency tier.
The Rodriguez government and opposition are negotiating to move roughly $4B in gold from the Bank of England to the NY Fed, which would unlock frozen reserves if completed.
Trump declined Saudi requests for US strikes on the Houthis twice on Sept 11, offering intelligence only while keeping forces focused on Iran and Hormuz, even as Saudi aircraft pounded Yemen in response.
Ghana's state-owned BOST Energies cut diesel and gasoline exports to Mali and Burkina Faso on Sept 16 to protect local supply, the sixth consecutive pass documenting AES fuel disruption.
Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei said Tehran will declare a restricted zone in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman within days, with ships entering without coordinating with Tehran to be placed on a sanction list. An announced legal regime over international water is an escalation of the blockade contest from interdiction to claimed jurisdiction.
The Panama Canal Authority warned that a worsening El Nino drought may force daily transits down from 36 to 32 starting Sept 15, with lake levels near record lows. The authority is describing a restriction on its own revenue-generating asset, a statement against interest. A climate-driven capacity cut to the single asset defining the country's infrastructure position.
Anak Krakatau eruption Sept 5-6 forced closure of Jakarta's Soekarno-Hatta and seven other airports, stranding 170,000 passengers.
The French Treasury sold benchmark 10-year OATs at 4.23% on Sept 3, up from 3.90% in August and the highest since the 2008 crisis, with French yields now above Greece's. The deficit stands at 5.1% of GDP against the EU's 3% ceiling and debt at 117.5% of GDP, the highest since the Second World War. Corroborated centrally against independent coverage of European yields at 15-year highs.
CPJ called for the release of journalist Irem Delice and three Aydin Denge staff, arrested Aug 29 and charged with spreading disinformation over a report headlined 'Erdogan passed away'. Prosecuting a headline about the head of state's health as disinformation criminalizes speculation rather than a false factual claim about policy.
UK government bond yields hit a fresh 19-year high on Sept 2, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, adding pressure on Chancellor Healey's budget plans. This landed in the same week PM Burnham gave his first Commons address and PMQs, so an untested government is writing its first budget into the worst gilt market in nearly two decades.
The rial hit a fresh record low past 2 million per dollar, reported around 2.1 to 2.55 million against major currencies. Iran's central bank governor claimed sufficient reserves, which is a state body reporting on its own balance sheet and is excluded from scoring. The market FX print is the independent thermometer and is what moves the inflation score.
A fire at the WB Electronics drone-components plant in Skarzysko-Kamienna on Aug 31 was assessed as likely sabotage, Poland opened a terrorism probe, and PM Tusk linked it to the Russian destabilization campaign. Confirmed by Reuters, PAP and Anadolu. Following the Kh-101 that crashed inside Poland, hybrid attack has moved from airspace incursion to the defence-industrial base itself.
Corroborates the export squeeze and frames the secondary-sanctions risk to Chinese buyers, noting Washington's wariness of Chinese retaliation. Satellite reporting cited across coverage shows Kharg Island's three berths empty for an extended period after operations halted July 31.
FMs Araghchi and Albusaidi met in Tehran Aug 25 to finalize a temporary Hormuz shipping corridor, with geographic coordinates agreed and a joint statement in final drafting; Iran conditions reopening on further terms including compensation. The closest an exit has come; held the conflict score with positive skew.
Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation of 15-50% on more than 800 tariff lines covering ~$20B of US goods (steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, electronics), effective Sept 8. An open bilateral tariff war with the destination of ~3/4 of Canadian exports; drove the alliance-reliability cut.
Talks broke down late Aug 21 with PM Carney calling the US terms 'uneconomic, unfair' on autos tariffs and Canadian sovereignty over decision-making. The collapse converted the Section 338 suspension into enforcement.
The cutoff severs a $28B+ two-way relationship in which the UAE was Iran's second-largest trade partner (30.6% of Iran's imports) and principal re-export conduit. Drove the UAE trade score cut and fed Iran's own trade collapse.
A US Navy MH-60 fired two Hellfires into the engine room of the Panama-flagged M/V Vela Nova after it allegedly tried to run the blockade toward an Iranian port; 17 crew evacuated uninjured (incident UKMTO-corroborated). CENTCOM's aggregates since July 14 (55 vessels redirected, 3 disabled, 2 boarded) are belligerent self-report, direction only.
The removal effort against Fed Governor Lisa Cook was revived with a White House response deadline of Aug 26, following the Supreme Court's for-cause ruling; separate reporting describes frequent undisclosed Trump-Warsh contacts, and the July FOMC minutes (released Aug 19) record a Warsh-initiated discussion of cutting FOMC meetings to six per year alongside a 9-3 hold with three dissents for a hike. Drove the Fed-independence cut; the Cook outcome is a carry-forward.
Trump said Gulf allies urged one more diplomatic attempt before escalation, with talks to proceed in two phases: Strait of Hormuz reopening first, then denuclearization. Iran denied negotiating directly with the US while confirming progress in the Oman-mediated shipping channel.
Kuwait's Defense Ministry confirmed an Iranian strike on a Chinese company's building in northern Kuwait killed one worker on July 30, the first fatality on Kuwaiti soil, consistent across five-plus independent outlets. No further strike on Kuwait was found in-window.
France's worst fires since WWII burned 100,000+ acres in Gironde with ~200,000 evacuated, prompting the first-ever national wildfire emergency; one of Spain's largest fires ever burned 111,000+ acres near Madrid (~63,000 evacuated) as a fourth 40C+ heatwave began July 28; Greece lost three firefighters. ~330,000-375,000 evacuated across the region in Europe's worst recorded heatwave season. Drove France climate near -1 to -2; Spain climate held at -5 with confidence up.
The IMF Executive Board completed the sixth and final review of Ghana's $3B ECF July 27, disbursing the last ~$371M; Ghana achieved 'moderate risk of debt distress' for the first time in 13 years with all debt indicators below LIC-DSF thresholds and the restructuring largely complete. Drove Ghana fiscal near 1 to 3 and long 3 to 4.
Three China confrontations in one week: the July 20 Second Thomas Shoal melee (Chinese personnel striking Filipino sailors with a wooden baton, one head injury; US State Dept condemnation), formal protests exchanged both ways, and CCG water cannon plus blocking at Scarborough July 24 with a CNN crew embarked. CCG 'ramming' claims are state-controlled and disputed. Drove Philippines conflict -6 to -7.
The Pentagon extended the DC National Guard deployment through Inauguration Day 2029 and nearly doubled it to ~5,000 troops from 20+ states over the city government's objection, at over $3M/day, with a CAP study finding no attributable crime reduction. Drove US rule_of_law -5 to -6; civil_liberties deliberately held at -5 (transparency tier unchanged).
On July 9 the White House fired all three Election Assistance Commission members, leaving the bipartisan federal elections agency unable to certify voting systems or disburse HAVA funds months before the midterms. Fed the US rule_of_law read (held at -5).
Qatar's LNG carrier Al Rekayyat was struck July 7; Gulf LNG traffic fell ~99% from the pre-war baseline. Qatar (fully Hormuz-dependent) trade_actions_capacity near -4 to -6 and conflict near -5 to -6.
On July 7 president-elect De la Espriella suspended the handover after Petro refused to recognize his June-21 win and alleged unproven 'algorithm fraud' - the first formal rupture in the empalme ahead of the Aug 7 transfer. Colombia political_stability -4 to -6.
Russia's Jan-May deficit hit 6.01T rubles ($83.5B) - 160% of the full-year target - on a ~30% oil/gas revenue drop, and Moscow rushed a law to breach spending/borrowing ceilings without disclosure. Drove Russia fiscal_state near 1 -> -2. (Exile outlet; the government 'no crisis' framing is excluded, contradicted by its own deficit data.)
Military authorities blocked ousted ex-president Embalo's planned return from exile on national-security grounds days before his scheduled arrival, after he announced a Dec 6 presidential bid against the junta.
UNSC Resolution 2829 on Sept 29 renewed the Gang Suppression Force for six months to Mar 31 2027, 12-0 with China, Russia and Pakistan abstaining, one day before expiry. Gang violence around Kenscoff still displaced 2,600-plus with 47 killed in September.
S&P raised Oman's 2026 growth forecast to 3.5%, more than double the prior 1.6%, holding the rating at BBB- stable, as Omani ports bypass Hormuz and capture diverted trade.
A UN group of human-rights experts reported a wave of enforced disappearances and deaths in state custody on Sept 22, following the Sept 2 constitutional rewrite entrenching the Ortega-Murillo co-presidency.
Thailand and Cambodia began UN-backed compulsory conciliation under UNCLOS in Singapore on Sept 15, replacing the prior stalemate with a formal legal process.
The Canal Authority capped daily transits at 34 from Sept 4, dropping to 32 from Sept 15, on El Niño rainfall deficit, compounding Hormuz diversion pressure.
War-risk shipping insurance claims passed $2 billion with premiums running 40 to 60 times pre-crisis levels, adding an estimated $7 to $8 per barrel to crude. Over 72 ships have been attacked since March across Hormuz, the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb and Saudi Red Sea ports. The geographic widening beyond Hormuz is what prices Saudi seaborne export capacity down independently of production.
Teargas and rubber bullets were used against migrants camped at Durban's Che Guevara Road on Sept 3, with further anti-foreigner protest violence and Congolese nationals reported injured. The UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination separately raised formal concern about rising anti-migrant violence in South Africa. State force used against migrant encampments plus a multilateral finding is a two-step move.
Trump claimed almost total US control of the Strait of Hormuz after the fresh strikes, floated renaming it, and publicly told Iranians to rise up and fight their leadership. An explicit external call for internal revolt is scored against Iran's political stability rather than as rhetoric.
The US announced a major Venezuela oil deal covering development across 17 fields, with Chevron expanding investment past $7B over five years targeting around 600,000 bpd. Bloomberg separately reports the deal displaces operators tied to OFAC-sanctioned Maduro-era producers. Booked as a modest step rather than a reversal: the sweeps disagree on counterparty structure and Venezuela's National Assembly has not ratified it.