Top stories, by evaluation weight
The same reporting behind our ratings, ranked by how much it moved our evaluation rather than by recency. State-self-reported sources are excluded from scoring; non-anglophone coverage is surfaced in translation. Every card links to its source.
526 stories, heaviest first - 3 on this page in translation
A wave of drone attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields from July 14 (DNO's Tawke hit twice and suspended, Khurmala and Sarsang targeted) cut ~140-150k bpd; the US-led coalition intercepted militia drones over Erbil and a US soldier died detonating a downed Iranian drone. Drove Iraq conflict near -8 to -9 and held trade near -8.
Bukele was proclaimed Nuevas Ideas' 2027 candidate July 12, operationalizing the 2025 constitutional overhaul (indefinite re-election, 6-year terms, no runoff, passed undebated in one session); TSE registration opens Oct 1. Entrenchment in practice: drove El Salvador rule_of_law -6 to -7.
President Nawrocki stripped Zelensky of the Order of the White Eagle over a UPA-named military unit; Zelensky and three former Ukrainian presidents returned their medals, and PM Tusk hardened through July 11 ('sober up'), with de-escalation steps agreed at Ankara and Polish services warning Russia seeks to inflame the rift. Drove Poland alliance 8 to 7.
The 55th Pacific Islands Forum ran Aug 30 to Sept 1 in Koror, Palau, with several heads of state absent. China objected to Taiwan's presence and warned of consequences. Corroborated by Reuters and AP. Australia's regional convening power is being contested while its alliance commitments are unchanged, which is why the score holds and the confidence rises.
Q2 GDP surprised to the upside at 0.4% quarterly and August inflation ran hotter than forecast, together putting an RBA rate rise firmly in play, with bonds selling off on the data. Growth surprising upward into an inflation overshoot is the combination that forces tightening.
Carney's Liberals swept three special elections on Sept 1, read across outlets as voter endorsement of his stand against US trade pressure. A governing party gaining seats mid-trade-war is a durable mandate signal rather than a poll.
Sustained wildfires forced Greece to move and otherwise disturb antiquities to protect heritage sites, and Morningstar DBRS separately ranked Greece among Europe's higher wildfire property-risk countries out to 2050. A state relocating its own antiquities is a revealed-preference measure of fire severity that no seasonal statistic captures.
EASA downgraded Jordan's airspace warning from high to medium risk on Aug 31, removing the blanket avoidance recommendation, on the same day Jordan's military intercepted eight missiles crossing its airspace. An independent EU regulator reopening a corridor with the strikes in view is an externally-validated infrastructure improvement, and both facts are booked rather than netted.
The Meloni government became Italy's longest continuously serving since the Second World War. Reuters' own analysis cautions the record may prove fleeting, and Deputy PM Salvini is simultaneously demanding at least EUR 20 billion in extra deficit spending for the 2027 budget while asserting Italy does not need Brussels' approval. That coalition strain is why the move is a single step.
The peso closed August above the AR$1,500 threshold for a full week for the first time, with the government appearing to loosen its intervention strategy amid low FX liquidity and seasonal export decline. A separate widely-syndicated claim pairing this with a new punitive press law could NOT be date-pinned and is not booked; only the market-observable price is scored.
Slovenia, alongside Czechia, blocked a joint EU statement condemning Israel's E1 West Bank settlement tender for 1,200 housing units on Aug 27, leaving only the foreign policy chief's own statement to be issued. Independently corroborated by Haaretz, which is critical of Israeli government policy generally, so there is no bias-toward-Israel concern in the corroboration.
An oil tanker was struck by a projectile off the Omani coast in the Strait of Hormuz on Aug 25 per shipping-monitor reporting, as Iranian attacks on shipping mount while the corridor is negotiated. Oman's mediator standing does not immunize its waters.
USD/RUB reached 83.70 on Aug 25, a 7.27% monthly weakening that reverses much of 2026's earlier ruble strength, flattering nominal oil-tax receipts while volume channels collapse. Fiscal score held with the trajectory flag standing.
The rupee held ~95.6-95.7/USD through the window (vs the 96.84 weak record), the RBI held at 5.25% (Aug 5, fourth hold) raising FY27 growth to 6.7%, and >$2.5B of August FPI equity inflows offset oil pressure. Managed stability inside the band the July cut anticipated; held.
Protesters declared civil disobedience across Tripoli the night of July 26-27, blocking intersections in six districts and erecting barriers at the Foreign Ministry, state TV, the Audit Bureau and the telecom holding company over 14-hour power cuts in 50C heat, with follow-on calls to topple the government; no casualties or arrests reported. Turkish state outlet covering against its pro-GNU tilt, which raises confidence. Drove Libya infrastructure -6 to -7; political stability held near -8.
UN Secretary-General Guterres visited Syria July 26, the first UNSG visit since 2009, as President al-Sharaa said Syria is negotiating a security agreement with Israel with multi-country participation while maintaining its Golan claim; the US State-Sponsor-of-Terrorism removal review continues. The realized engagement (not the stated intent) eased Syria alliance 0 to 1.
The SAF and allies recaptured Bara, Al-Baraka and Um Sayala July 25, opening the 350-km motorway to Khartoum and cutting RSF routes (SAF claims relayed by independent exile press; both sides claim gains; vehicle-destruction counts excluded); Hemedti told RSF fighters July 30 that 'Khartoum is our target'. Fronts shifting inside a war at the floor: Sudan conflict held at -10.
Available generation on July 25 was 1,070 MW against 3,200 MW demand, with 9 thermal units down and 106 distributed plants offline for lack of fuel, after three total grid collapses in early July; pot-banging protests hit multiple Havana districts, Santiago and Cienfuegos July 24-25, with activists alleging selective power restoration. Exile outlet, anti-government tilt; the utility figures are admissions against interest. Drove infrastructure -9 to -10 and political stability near -4 to -5.
A fire of 'exceptional magnitude' (Macron) burned 1,900+ ha of Fontainebleau forest ~60km from Paris July 12-14, forcing ~800 evacuations and disrupting the A6 and rail, during the season's third red-alert heatwave. Drove France climate near 0 to -1.
The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak reached ~2,000 confirmed cases and 700+ deaths across 5 provinces (>80 new cases/24h, 80% outside contact-tracing lists, spread to two new provinces); WHO says the true count could be 2-4x reported. Control is degrading: held DRC healthcare at -9, confidence up.
291 murders YTD through July 11 (-22% y/y), shootings -27%, robberies -25%, murder clearance up 20% - the Gleaner independently cross-checking JCF figures. A corroborated sustained security improvement: drove Jamaica crime_safety near -3 to -2 and long -2 to -1.
The Bougainville independence referendum result was tabled in the national parliament on Aug 27. Moving a secession question from a completed referendum into the national legislature converts a deferred dispute into an active constitutional one, whichever way it resolves.
Two applicants filed suit Aug 25 accusing Mnangagwa of packing the Senate with ZANU-PF politicians instead of constitutionally-required independents, seeking to nullify 10 appointments. Residual judicial recourse being tested; rule-of-law level held.
The IMF cautioned Ghana on Aug 25 against rushing back to international capital markets, urging it to rebuild investor confidence and its credit rating first. This is a genuinely new in-window item and specifically NOT the July 27 IMF-completion story that has been recirculating as fresh. A creditor counselling patience does not reverse the debt-distress exit already booked, and it cautions against extrapolating it.
Treasury doubled its long-end liquidity-support buybacks for 10-20yr and 20-30yr securities from $2B to at least $4B per operation (announced Aug 19, effective Sept 9, through Nov 4), explicitly responding to the rout. Issuer self-report on its own market support, labeled partially-entangled; independently corroborated by Bloomberg, CNBC and Axios.
Annual inflation exceeded 10% for the first time in two years with motor-gasoline inflation at 19.9%, tied to the refinery campaign's fuel-supply disruption; Putin's own '~1% growth' concession (Aug 19, state claim, direction only) matches the CBR's downgraded band. Trade-press synthesis over Rosstat-adjacent data keeps confidence modest; drove the inflation cut.
SAF-RSF fighting flared around El Obeid and Jabrat al-Sheikh from Aug 13-14 with RSF drones downed Aug 17 (Critical Threats corroborates); the pre-window RSF-governor defection signals coalition erosion without reducing violence. The claimed killing of commander 'Jebel Moon' is belligerent-adjacent, unconfirmed, not booked. Floor held.
With Amendment No. 3 in force (terms to 7 years, elections to 2030), Mnangagwa declared ZANU-PF 'will continue ruling, ruling and ruling' (~Aug 17-18) as party structures began aligning the party constitution to the extension. Opposition-aligned outlet, existence corroborated across Zimbabwean press; drove the stability cut from entrenchment-in-law to declared permanence.
Workers' Party charter revisions strip references to peaceful unification and cement Kim Jong Un as sole leader with further centralized party control. Consolidation of this kind reduces near-term factional risk while removing every remaining institutional check, which raises long-horizon transition risk. The underlying charter text is a DPRK self-report refracted through independent analysis, so confidence stays very low.
Maduro and Cilia Flores asked a New York federal court on Sept 3 to dismiss drug-trafficking charges on presidential-immunity grounds. Together with the oil deal's lack of National Assembly ratification, this is why the economic improvement does not read across to Venezuela's rule-of-law score.
The AFP monitored 56 Chinese coast guard and PLA-Navy vessels across four West Philippine Sea features in August, up from 48 in July. The vessel counts are the Philippine military counting its adversary and are belligerent self-report, though carried by three independent Philippine outlets. An incremental rise in a standing presence corroborates the existing level. No Second Thomas Shoal incident occurred in-window.
President Laura Fernandez is in an active confrontation with the judiciary at 100 days in office and publicly denied any authoritarian-consolidation intent. A head of government having to deny bukelization while fighting the courts is a real if early institutional signal in a country whose score rests on judicial independence.
The weekly pro-EU march continued (~Aug 22, date approximate to the Saturday cadence), this one dedicated to citizens emigrating for work and blaming Georgian Dream's departure from the EU path. Held level; no new inflection.
Gunmen abducted three Ethiopian Red Cross workers in North Gondar Aug 15; one was tortured and died of his injuries, within daily Fano-ENDF fighting and restricted humanitarian access. Domestic independent outlet, community-aligned flagged. Conflict level held.
After ~46 days of unrest, a June 19 partial government-COB agreement plus a 90-day state of emergency cleared all blockades by June 23. A pause, not a settlement. Bolivia political_stability near -9 -> -6; civil_liberties held at -4 (emergency powers now invoked).
The UN-backed Gang Suppression Force pushed gangs out of several strategic Port-au-Prince locations and reopened some major roads - the first tangible security gains in months - against still-record 1.5M displacement and a hoped-for first electoral round before end-2026. Eased Haiti crime_safety -10 to -9 off the floor.
Washington and Tehran reached a provisional framework on June 14 to halt fighting on all fronts, including Lebanon, and to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal signing set for June 19 in Switzerland and a 60-day window for nuclear and sanctions talks to follow.
Sudan lifted the two-year Khartoum curfew and state of emergency on Aug 28. Recorded as a concrete dated liberalization but NOT booked as an improvement: the same reporting flags active drone threats and unexploded ordnance, and a curfew lift in one city does not move a national civil-liberties floor set against a genocide finding elsewhere in the country.
The US issued a security alert and suspended consular activity in Mexicali over a cartel attack threat on Aug 25. The State Department is the source of the alert and is partially entangled where US interests are concerned; the reporting is independent. A foreign mission suspending services corroborates Mexico's existing crime-and-safety level rather than moving it.
Saudi crude exports rebounded to ~90% of pre-war baseline as Hormuz normalized and OPEC+ approved another ~188k-bpd August hike. Saudi trade_actions_capacity near -6 -> -3 (though the July 7 tanker strike shows residual risk).