Top stories, by evaluation weight
The same reporting behind our ratings, ranked by how much it moved our evaluation rather than by recency. State-self-reported sources are excluded from scoring; non-anglophone coverage is surfaced in translation. Every card links to its source.
621 stories, heaviest first - 4 on this page in translation
Renewed gang attacks through August (farming-community attack Aug 24; dozens killed or injured since early August) against a Jan-June UN toll of 3,100+ killed and 1.5M displaced, while the GSF announced deployment plans into Cite Soleil and Artibonite. The GSF-gains improvement holds by a thread; December elections remain threatened.
EASA's conflict-zone bulletin directs operators not to fly in the Amman FIR at any altitude through Aug 31, an effective closure of civil aviation, while a petition drive (single-chain within this article, direction only) demands withdrawal of foreign forces. The realized advisory drove the infrastructure cut.
Iraqi CTS arrested Nujaba intelligence chief Abbas al-Yaqoubi under judicial warrant Aug 17 in connection with drone attacks on US interests; after the militia threatened to 'burn Baghdad', a Karkh court dropped the charges and he was released within about a day. The arrest shows intent, the release under threat shows the ceiling; the Sept 30 disarmament deadline is the live test.
Fujimori was inaugurated July 28 as Peru's tenth president in ~10 years, with the restored bicameral Congress seated and Fuerza Popular winning the Senate presidency July 26; runner-up Roberto Sanchez refuses to recognize the sub-50,000-vote result, has filed a legal challenge and called protests. An on-schedule, contested transfer: eased political stability -5 to -4.
Aramco shifted exports from Yanbu to the Ain Sukhna-SUMED-Sidi Kerir route; SUMED inflows rose ~50% versus June and Suez crude exports doubled week-on-week to 1.06M bpd, at an estimated ~$5/bbl extra for Asian buyers. The Suez workaround is now confirmed volume, a realized canal-revenue windfall for Egypt held against new Damietta port risk: Egypt trade held near -4.
Juan Orlando Hernandez landed at Palmerola July 26, eight months after Trump pardoned his 45-year US drug-trafficking sentence, with his Honduran arrest warrant cancelled even as Pandora II corruption charges nominally remain. The justice system standing down for a convicted trafficker ex-president: drove rule of law near -5 to -6.
Education Minister Dharmendra Pradhan resigned July 25 after weeks of nationwide youth 'Cockroach' protests over the NEET-UG paper leak (2M+ candidates re-sat the exam); protesters called off the agitation 'in good faith'. A cabinet scalp extracted by street mobilization, resolved non-violently within institutions: political stability held at 1 with confidence up.
Thousands demonstrated in central Tunis July 25 on the fifth anniversary of Saied's power grab, chanting for the fall of the regime, merging with nationwide blackout protests, road blockades and burning tires; Saied framed the outages as sabotage and criminal probes were opened against civil servants on the electricity file. The first at-scale convergence of service anger and regime-change demands: drove political stability near -4 to -5; rule of law held at -6.
The CBR cut only 25bp to 14.00% July 24, warned of higher inflation (underlying 4-5% annualized), RAISED its 2026 average key-rate path to 14.5-14.6% and slashed the 2026 GDP forecast to a 0.0-1.0% stagnation band; MOEX bounced 1.8% on the day. State central-bank data, but an admission against interest, exile-press corroborated: drove Russia inflation -3 to -4.
On day six of the Fedorov protests Zelensky dismissed Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi (55% public support per Rating Group) and named Mykhailo Drapatyi, 43; the Chief of the General Staff followed July 22. Fedorov welcomed it but refused any post except defense minister, and protests ran peacefully past day 13 with zero police violence. The system conceding under tolerated street pressure: political stability held near -5 with confidence up.
Protests over Zelensky's July 16 dismissal of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov (drone-program architect) reached a 5th day July 20 (crowds up to ~10,000), with demonstrators and many soldiers also demanding the top general's removal; Zelensky signaled openness to compromise. Rare wartime unrest: worsened Ukraine political_stability near -4 to -5.
Ortega (80, unseen publicly for ~two months, reportedly ill) declared July 19 that Nicaragua will hold no more elections, explicitly to prevent an exiled opposition from taking power - a formal repudiation of electoral transition. Worsened Nicaragua political_stability -5 to -7.
President Sheinbaum confirmed Mexico will pursue criminal and civil legal action against the US over 17 Mexican citizens' deaths in ICE-related incidents, after 11 diplomatic protest notes, with cease-and-desist letters to private detention operators. Drove Mexico alliance -1 to -2; US treatment_non_citizens held at -8.
The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak reached 1,926 confirmed cases and 702 deaths through July 11 - now the third-largest Ebola outbreak on record, spreading faster than prior outbreaks with the true scale not yet established per WHO. Drove DR Congo healthcare -8 to -9.
The Article 233 180-day cap on temporary presidential absence passed with neither an absolute-absence declaration nor elections called, the Supreme Court having invented a non-constitutional 'forced absence' category; civil society demands compliance and Machado's return. A constitutional hard limit passed unanswered: drove Venezuela rule_of_law -8 to -9.
LATE BOOKING (correction): Vucic announced June 27-28 that he will resign within weeks with early elections within 3 to 4 months, the direct product of months of student-led protests (AP-syndicated). Balkan Insight assesses he intends to remain the center of power through the maneuver. Missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since May 28; booked as a note with confidence trimmed, score held, election-scheduling the watch item.
The deportation campaign more than doubled in under two weeks to 53,449 foreign nationals as of July 11 (from ~25,000 before the June 30 anti-migrant protests), over 80% Malawian nationals. A street-pressure-driven mass-removal step-change: drove South Africa treatment_non_citizens -2 to -4.
The US Treasury opened a new sanctions tranche on Iran's auto and rail industries on Oct 1, adding an enforcement channel on an already fully-sanctioned economy.
The RBA raised the cash rate 25bp to 4.60% on Sept 29, its fourth hike of 2026 and the highest since 2011, against inflation of 3.5-3.6% above target. A credible independent tightening.
Norges Bank unexpectedly raised the policy rate from 4.25% to 4.50% on Sept 24 to return inflation to target, an independent central bank acting decisively.
Washington told the UN it would support a 12-month drawdown then liquidation of the roughly $500m UN Support Office that sustains the AU mission AUSSOM, threatening the logistics the counter-al-Shabaab mission depends on.
Rezaei said the Iran-Oman shipping corridor through Hormuz, with entry and exit points under Iranian control, is agreed and awaiting signature. This is the specific mechanism on which Iran's positive skew rests, and it is closer to signature than at any prior pass even as the near-term conflict score reaches the floor. Sourced to an Iranian official via IRIB, so it is treated as a statement of intent rather than as a concluded agreement.
A Houthi missile strike killed at least four civilians and injured nine on a crowded road south of Taiz, amid Houthi attempts to advance through western Taiz and southern Hodeidah toward al-Makha and Bab al-Mandeb. Government forces launched fresh air strikes on Sept 7. Movement in both directions with no decisive shift, so both horizons hold.
Foreign Minister Raina Forbin formally asked the UN Security Council to renew the Gang Suppression Force mandate before it expires Sept 30. Haiti's stability score is already at the floor, but the expiry is a hard dated cliff inside the next window and is flagged so the next pass books the outcome rather than the request.
Houthi forces opened a broad offensive west of Taiz in the Maqbanah mountains on Sept 3, attempting to cut the Taiz to Mocha road and sever the government's coastal supply route and Red Sea access. AFP sourcing puts the day's toll at 18 Houthi and 13 government fighters. The road is the last non-Houthi corridor to the Red Sea.
The Panama Canal Authority restricted transit capacity on Sept 3, explicitly linked in reporting to the Hormuz crisis rerouting global shipping, and a shipper paid a record $5.3 million in an Aug 25 slot auction. This is distinct from the older drought-driven capacity cuts. Panama's core asset is being rationed by a war on the other side of the world.
A Reuters poll of economists expects the ECB to raise rates on Sept 10, taking the deposit rate to 2.50% in a second consecutive hike, with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% pushed above target by energy costs traceable to the Hormuz disruption. The decision falls AFTER this window, so only the expectation is recorded and no euro-area score is moved on it.
Xi Jinping made his first visit to Egypt in a decade on Sept 2, agreeing to advance phase three of the China-Egypt industrial zone in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, which already hosts around 200 companies and $4B of investment, with commitments on maritime shipping security. Corroborated by AP and the NYT. Xi's call to oppose external interference is Chinese framing and is not scored.
The US Chief of Naval Operations stated on the record that the Navy will not return to NSA Bahrain anytime soon after the February strike, with Fifth Fleet logistics permanently shifted to Diego Garcia and a roughly $400M reconstruction bill. This is fresh confirmation of an ongoing state rather than new damage, and it is why Bahrain's alliance reliability moves as well as its conflict exposure.
PM al-Zaidi rejected any extension of the US-led coalition presence past the Sept 30 withdrawal deadline, calling it fixed and final. Middle East Monitor carries a known editorial slant and the item is corroborated across several outlets. Ending the coalition mid-war removes the mechanism through which Baghdad has balanced Washington and Tehran.
The Bank of Israel cut its policy rate 25bp to 3.25% on Sept 1, a third consecutive cut and the lowest since 2022, citing shekel appreciation pressure on exporters and inflation below the target midpoint. A central bank easing on stated disinflation grounds during a war is independence functioning, and the decision is corroborated outside Israeli outlets.
Governor Ueda signalled on Sept 1 that the Bank will debate a September rate hike, saying underlying inflation is nearing the 2% target. A central bank moving toward tightening precisely when the sovereign's borrowing costs are spiking is independence exercised against fiscal convenience. Corroborated by Mainichi.
NATO F-16s stationed in Estonia scrambled on Sept 1 after drones flew close to and one crossed the Russia-Estonia border into Estonian airspace. A violated NATO border requiring an alert launch is a step beyond the ambient threat environment already priced.
Rival Libyan camps signed a UN-backed 4+4 roadmap in Tripoli on Sept 1 for elections within 24 months, with candidacy-rule changes admitting dual citizens and military officers. Booked as one cautious step: analysts quoted in the same reporting doubt power-holders will relinquish control without force, and the rule changes appear tailored to specific figures.
Sheinbaum's negotiators continued a separate bilateral track in Washington as of Aug 24, having rejected US proposals restricting Mexican agricultural exports. Mexico's trade score held; divergence from the Canada track noted.
Lawyer Carlos Cardenas and opposition figure Mauricio Alonso died in custody in August after weeks of enforced disappearance (Confidencial via HRW; day unpinned, month stated), at least the fifth and sixth such deaths since 2019. Floor-level confirmation, not a new tier.
Drones struck the Ufa refinery Aug 19; further strikes hit Novokuibyshevsk in Samara region Aug 22 (one of the deepest of the summer, ~1,000km; Kyiv Independent corroboration, pro-Ukraine framing flagged) and a southern refinery in Krasnodar Aug 25 (Bloomberg). Three refineries in seven days drove the infrastructure cut.
Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro formally launched near-tied campaigns Aug 16 (Quaest 43-40 narrowing; first round Oct 4). High-stakes but institutionally normal so far; stability held with the WTO Section-301 consultation clock running in the background.
Matsumoto was confirmed 51-47 and sworn in Aug 11 as BLS commissioner, publicly pledging data-integrity independence after his predecessor's firing; the bureau has lost over a quarter of staff and 39% of leadership since January 2025. Governance positive that does not yet restore capacity; score held.
The July 30 Politburo pledged to accelerate fiscal spending and roll out 'incremental measures in a timely manner' but announced no fresh stimulus, after Q2 growth of 4.3% (state figure, direction only), the slowest in 3+ years and below the 4.5-5.0% target floor. Sub-target growth met with hesitance: China fiscal held near -5. PLA live-fire drills ran in the Taiwan Strait July 23-24, a day after the Rubio-Wang talks (single-source dates, flagged).