Top stories, by evaluation weight
The same reporting behind our ratings, ranked by how much it moved our evaluation rather than by recency. State-self-reported sources are excluded from scoring; non-anglophone coverage is surfaced in translation. Every card links to its source.
621 stories, heaviest first - 1 on this page in translation
Vanke guided to a RMB 12-15B ($1.8-2.2B) H1 loss - flat versus H1 2025, no improvement - against RMB 356B interest-bearing debt versus RMB 60B cash; 100-city secondary home prices fell in 88 cities in June. Corroborates the China fiscal read.
La Nueva Familia Michoacana began drone-bomb attacks on rural Guerrero (July 9) after forces were redeployed to World Cup host cities; the Sinaloa cartel war kept homicides high. Mexico social_violence near -6 to -7.
June CPI rose just 1.0% y/y (weak domestic demand) while PPI jumped 4.1% (AI/semiconductor demand) - a two-speed economy. Corroborates China's fiscal/demand fragility read (NBS figures flagged, read via independent synthesis).
349 MPs nominated Andy Burnham with rivals ruled out and nominations closing July 16, putting the UK on track for its 7th PM in 10 years around July 18-20 without a general election; the Farage-triggered Clacton by-election is set for Aug 13. An orderly succession within functioning institutions: UK political_stability held near -2 with confidence up.
The yen stayed near a 39-year low (~162.6/USD, July 8) despite a record ~11.7tn-yen April-May intervention and repeated warnings - markets testing Tokyo's resolve. Japan fiscal_state held near 2/long -4.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.0% on June 16 - the highest since 1995 - on a 7-1 vote, citing inflation and yen risk, with the deputy governor signaling further hikes to come; the data-driven tightening reaffirmed the BOJ's credibility despite global carry-trade implications.
Al Jazeera reported an Iranian drone strike damaged a Bahraini desalination plant and injured three people on March 8, 2026, a direct hit on Gulf drinking-water infrastructure rather than merely a threatened one, in a tit-for-tat exchange during the Iran war.
Iranian crude output rebounded from ~2.9M bpd in June to ~4.0M in July with ~4.2M projected for August as Tehran races anticipated Aug 21 US restrictions, and non-Chinese refiners have left the buyer pool almost entirely. Kpler-style tanker-tracking estimate, the better independent class of sanctioned-flow data.
The toll of the ~July 29 joint US-Saudi strikes on PMF camps in Diyala is booked as a contested 4-20 range: a US official told NYT ~20 Iranian advisers, PMF contacts said 5, Tehran confirmed 4 IRGC members, and the PMF claims 20+ of its own dead; every count originates from an interested party. Kataib Hezbollah's Aug 6 retaliation deadline passed without a realized mega-attack in-window.
NDMA reported 107-109 dead and 344 injured since June 26 (KP 55, Punjab 36, mostly house collapses) with more heavy rain forecast; state agency figures, direction only. The season so far runs far below 2025 (1,037 dead, 2M displaced): climate held near -7.
The third USMCA joint-review round ran July 21-24 in Mexico City (steel, autos rules of origin, labor, agriculture), with USTR Greer meeting President Sheinbaum at the National Palace; Mexico stays at the pre-existing 10% on non-USMCA goods, spared the Canada-style escalation. The divergence is the signal: Mexico trade held near -4 with confidence up.
In-window coverage of the July 19 abolition of elections is reaction and analysis: Rubio cites 2,350+ sanctioned officials and urges joint isolation, Freedom House frames a 'North Korea model'. No new concrete action in-window: the floor-level scores hold.
Monsoon floods/landslides killed 25 in India (15 in Jammu & Kashmir, 9 in Nagaland, 1 in Assam), with 57,000+ affected across seven Assam districts and active conditions forecast to continue. Corroborating climate-disaster context for India; no score moved this pass on the recurring monsoon.
Iran struck Al Udeid Air Base in two further missile waves July 16-17; Qatari air defenses intercepted but a child was injured by falling interceptor shrapnel in a residential area. Repeat direct strikes on the largest US regional base while Doha co-mediates: held Qatar conflict near -7, confidence up.
The Knesset dissolved 62-0 on July 17 (completing a rare full four-year term) with elections set for Oct 27; a Channel 13 poll put Eisenkot's new Yashar party at 23 seats, narrowly over Likud. Democratic-continuity signal, but a pre-dissolution blitz weakened judicial oversight and expanded media regulation: held Israel political_stability near -4.
The Pentagon confirmed the DC National Guard deployment through Inauguration Day 2029 (~2,000+ troops); US District Judge Jia Cobb heard the DC AG's removal injunction July 17 and made no ruling. The 2029 pre-commitment confirmed + a live injunction: held US rule_of_law at -6, confidence up.
The IMF projects ~68.9% average 2026 inflation and a ~6.1% real GDP contraction as the rial sets record lows (~1.4-1.5M rial/USD); Iran's own CBI (83.1%) and Statistical Centre (88.6%) figures disagree and are direction-only. Re-anchored Iran inflation on an independent (IMF) basis; held at -8, confidence up.
Cuba's grid suffered its fifth total collapse of 2026 (third in 15 days) July 14 after a Felton Unit 1 shutdown cascaded to full disconnection; daily blackouts now average 20-24 hours, some areas past 72 hours. Cubadebate restoration claims are state (direction only). Held Cuba infrastructure at the -9 floor, confidence up.
Houthi missile/drone attacks forced the closure of four southern Saudi airports (Abha, Jizan, Najran, Sharurah) around July 13-14, the first major Houthi-Saudi escalation since the 2022 ceasefire. Corroborates the Saudi conflict downgrade; EASA airspace advisory corroborates.
Abu Dhabi's ADX fell 0.56% and Dubai's DFM 1.51% in early-July trading; cumulative Dubai/Abu Dhabi market losses reached ~$120bn since the Feb war began. UAE conflict_involvement held near -6 (confidence up on realized transmission).
The IMF confirmed July 9 that Georgieva and interim president Rodriguez discussed Venezuela tapping ~$4.2bn in unused SDRs plus a ~$650m RFI tranche for quake reconstruction - re-engagement after years shut out. Venezuela fiscal_state held near -8 (a modest positive noted).
Iran's official inflation hit 88.6% y/y in June (from ~83.9% in May), the rial slid to ~1.82M/USD by July 10, and the IMF projects a 6.1% GDP contraction. Iran inflation held at the -8 floor; regime CBI/SCI figures used for direction, cross-checked against market trackers and the IMF.
Per WSJ (July 8), Iraq agreed to US-demanded controls on dollar flows to Iran-aligned militias in exchange for restored dollar shipments; PM al-Zaidi set a Sept 30 militia-disarmament deadline that the Islamic Resistance publicly refused. Iraq conflict held near -8 (internal-security tension) and monetary_independence held at -4 (liquidity positive).
The chavista Assembly kept invoking post-quake 'unity/stability' rather than convening the constitutionally mandated election as Rodriguez's interim mandate lapsed; opposition leader Machado faces friction with Washington over returning. Venezuela rule_of_law held at -8 (crisis unresolved).
The large-scale reciprocal border mobilization reported around July 8 continued with NO independently confirmed escalation to open fighting and no confirmed de-escalation through July 14 - the situation is frozen at high mobilization. Ethiopia conflict held at -9 and Eritrea at -8; no score change without a verified in-window event.
As a July 15 US Section 301 decision on 25% tariffs (exempting beef/coffee/aircraft) approaches, Flavio Bolsonaro lobbied Washington to delay it before Brazil's October election. Brazil trade_actions_capacity held near -2 (threat active, not imposed).
A TTP attack killed nine police at a Balochistan dam project (July 7); China-mediated Pakistan-Afghanistan talks remained stalled. Pakistan conflict held at -7.
A federal judge (S.D. Ohio) ordered USCIS to resume frozen green-card/work-permit processing (order July 6, reported July 7), with work-permit decisions due within 30 days - a functioning judicial check. Offsets the institutional negatives; US rule_of_law held at -5.
Wind-down-only GL X1 expires 12:01am EDT July 17 with no extension or relief reported through July 14; no new Iranian-oil transactions permitted. Corroborates the Iran sanctions floor alongside the blockade.
New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei did not appear publicly during his assassinated father's dayslong state funeral (July 4-9) staged to project strength - an opacity/fragility signal mid-war. Iran alliance_reliability held at -5.
Trump called the Fed board 'hostile' on July 3, resuming rate-cut pressure as inflation topped 4%, even after Chair Warsh's hawkish June hold asserted independence. Mixed signal; US monetary_fed_independence held near -4.
M23 suspended the Qatar-mediated negotiations, accusing Kinshasa of violating the Declaration of Principles, and expelled a Congolese official from ceasefire verification, with fresh Wazalendo clashes near Kavumu and an army drone strike near Nyabiondo; Goma and Bukavu remain M23-held with 7M+ displaced. A diplomatic setback layered on a severe baseline that the Ebola response must now run through.
Attribution for the July 29 Damietta port drone fires stayed unresolved: WSJ's unnamed Egyptian officials blamed Iran, Egypt's information ministry publicly denied that, and Iran's FM called it a false flag; no repeat strike on Egyptian soil followed in-window. The strike is verified, its author is not; Egypt's conflict score held.
Central banks bought a net 288.9t of gold in Q2 2026 (+62% y/y) into a 16% price drop, led by Poland (51t) and China (33t), and 74% of WGC-surveyed central banks expect to hold less USD in reserves within five years, citing the 2022 Russian-reserve freeze as the credibility event; Russia was a net seller (-22t) to plug its deficit. WGC data through a bullish-gold outlet; numbers read, framing discounted.
Brent topped $90/bbl (highest in over a month) on the tanker attacks, Houthi blockade and 10th night of strikes, with ~20M bpd transiting Hormuz; US average gas topped $4/gallon July 20 and Goldman warned of $120 if Hormuz disruption persists into Q4. Macro context for Gulf exporters and importers.
India summoned Russia's charge d'affaires after a July 19 strike hit the MV Golden Leo near Odesa, killing four of five Indian crew - the first Indian seafarer deaths of the war; India's MEA called it 'unacceptable' while the Kremlin said strikes continue. Friction with a cultivated non-aligned partner: Russia alliance held at -6 (noted strain).
Over 400 Kenyans were repatriated from South Africa July 18 amid the anti-immigrant crackdown and xenophobic-violence fears, extending the deportation campaign's regional/diplomatic cost. Watch-item corroborating the prior pass's South Africa treatment_non_citizens move; no score moved this pass.
Twirwaneho took and lost Kipupu within 48 hours (July 13-14) as M23 kept ~5 drone strikes/day, but the UNSC sanctioned six individuals + two entities (incl. Twirwaneho and M23's AFC wing) July 14, FARDC returned to Goma for ceasefire monitoring, and the fifth Joint Security Coordination Mechanism met in Geneva. Held DRC conflict at -9.
The Kerch Strait / Don-Azov Canal shipping halt (from July 10, under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign) persisted with no reopening through July 20; ~25% of Russia's wheat exports normally transit the Azov, with Euronext wheat at a 6-week high. Ukrainian vessel counts (116-136) flagged, not scored. Held Russia trade at -7.
Follow-through on the OCCRP/Irish Times investigation: Ireland says it will cooperate if the Commission proposes alumina sanctions; the Irish government's own probe into the plant's Russian-linked exports is due within days. Watch-item; no score moved.