Top stories, by evaluation weight
The same reporting behind our ratings, ranked by how much it moved our evaluation rather than by recency. State-self-reported sources are excluded from scoring; non-anglophone coverage is surfaced in translation. Every card links to its source.
621 stories, heaviest first - 6 on this page in translation
M23-allied Twirwaneho captured Point Zero (July 4), Mulima (July 6) and Kipupu, capital of Itombwe sector (July 10) in South Kivu with drone strikes on FARDC/Burundian positions; UN rights chief Turk deplored continued clashes - no evidence of Washington Accords compliance. DR Congo conflict held at -9.
The rupee traded ~95.3-95.6/USD through July 8-10 after RBI dollar sales defended the record-low breach (superseding the prior pass's ~96.8 intraday figure), with reserves ~$681-690B under an oil shock adding over $60B/yr to the import bill; the commerce ministry's claim that the US trade-deal framework is 'ready' is a government claim, noted not scored. India monetary held at 4 with confidence up.
The regime annulled the professional licenses of at least 2,000 lawyers without explanation (reported July 9) - a mass disbarment stripping the last practical layer of legal defense. Nicaragua rule_of_law held at -9 (near floor) with confidence up.
Modi's July 6-8 Indonesia visit produced 20 MOUs (incl. BrahMos cooperation) and Indonesia's top civilian honor, deepening SE Asia ties. India alliance_reliability held at 1 (partly offsetting US-deal friction).
The 21st package's 218 designations, bank, payment and crypto transaction bans and A7 stablecoin-network measures take effect on staggered dates of Aug 13 and Aug 23, with private-sector compliance broadening (Apple and Google delisted sanctioned-bank apps); the oil price cap stands as booked at $44.10, frozen for a year at the July 23 adoption. The 22nd package is not expected before October.
A 'fairly large' July 27 intervention lifted the rupee from ~96.15 to 95.78/USD, its best day since mid-June, after an estimated $8-9B of dollar sales across spot and NDF July 17-21 (banker estimates, unofficial) near the 96.96 record low, against a ~90%-imported-oil shock. Managed stress, credibly executed: monetary independence held at 3 with confidence up.
Typhoon Noul made landfall on the Guangdong coast July 26, the strongest landfall in China this year, with hundreds of thousands evacuated per Chinese state authorities (direction only). No score moved; noted for the climate picture.
Confirmed mpox cases reached 3,022 per the July 23 official report; the sourcing chain is state-controlled throughout (UAE state agency relaying Chinese state wire relaying ministry data), so direction only, no score moved.
Congress passed the centerpiece of Kast's program July 22: a phased corporate rate cut from 27% to 23%, capital-repatriation incentives and a compensation mechanism for court-overturned permits, against a weak backdrop (Q1 GDP -0.5%, unemployment 9.4%). A deputy finance minister who failed a drug test was replaced within a day. Governability functioning: political stability held at 3 with confidence up.
Mozambican + Rwandan forces mounted an offensive to retake the Catupa base (out of government control since Jan 2026) as Rwanda reinforced past 2,000 RDF personnel; a competing read holds Islamic State Mozambique is consolidating a >100km coastal enclave, with ~300,000 displaced since July. Held Mozambique conflict at -7.
37 heads of state/government met in Paris July 13 (Macron, Starmer, Merz co-chairing, Zelensky present) focused on Ukraine's air defense: SAMP/T batteries and 16 Rafale jets pledged, with Ukrainian co-pilots flying Mirage jets in the July 14 Bastille Day flyover as concrete implementation. Corroborates the Ukraine alliance move.
The spread held in the ~400-405bp 8-year-low band through the window, moving on global energy volatility rather than domestic factors, with the new $2B Bonar 2029 auction receiving offers July 15 (outside window, not scored). Argentina fiscal held at near 6.
JNIM and the Tuareg-led FLA besieged the Malian army/Africa Corps garrison at Anefis (Kidal) for six days (July 4-9), part of coordinated attacks across Mali/Niger/Burkina Faso. Mali and Burkina Faso conflict held at -8; the junta's '100+ militants killed' claim is excluded state framing.
The IMF projected Pakistan's FY27 growth at 3.5% (below the 4% target) with inflation rising to 8.4%, citing Iran-war spillover. Pakistan fiscal_state held at -5.
Government/Africa Corps forces retook Anefis around July 8-9 after the six-day JNIM-FLA siege, with air support from Gao; the junta/Russian claims of ~100 militants killed in July 13-14 mopping-up (RT/Pravda) are self-reports and excluded from scoring. Mali conflict held at -8 with confidence up on the corroborated sequence.
The July 28 M6.8 Kumamoto quake killed 34, including 7+ in an Aeon Mall floor collapse in Kashima and 8 at a Nippon Paper mill in Yatsushiro, with a tsunami warning issued; the industrial-facility failures suggest real local economic damage. A significant loss event absorbed by high national resilience: disaster insurance held at -3 with confidence up.
Nigeria's CBN held the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.50% at its 306th meeting (July 20-21) citing heightened global uncertainties - the expected hold after June's disinflation. Nigeria monetary held; no surprise.
Bangladesh's monsoon flash-flood toll held at 51 dead with 1.11M+ affected across 10 districts - a running total from the event that began ~July 10-12, no new in-window increment. Bangladesh climate/civil_service scored last pass; held.
Herdsmen attacks escalated in Benue: Otukpo-Nobi (~July 12, tolls of 10-18 reported and unverified) followed by an early-July-14 attack on Ondo community in Ugboju, linked to reprisals after the June killing of the state herders'-association chairman; Tinubu convened an emergency security meeting. Nigeria social_cohesion held at -6.
Troops repelled an ISWAP infiltration at Cross Kauwa, Borno on July 11 (the foreign-facilitator identification is uncorroborated military self-report, flagged), while all 44 Oyo State abductees were rescued alive July 10 after 56 days with no ransom paid per Tinubu. Nigeria conflict held at -7.
A rare 4-ship PLA-Navy standoff with a Philippine vessel near Scarborough Shoal occurred July 11 (the 10th anniversary of the Hague ruling) as Manila concluded the multinational 'Salaknib 2026' exercise. Philippines conflict held at -5; alliance held at 3.
A July 7 ISWAP attack on a Logomani (Ngala) forward base killed a soldier and troops repelled multiple Borno infiltration attempts July 10. Nigeria conflict held at -7 (military OPHK self-report flagged).
Reform UK leader Farage resigned his Clacton seat (July 7-8) to trigger an Aug 13 by-election amid scrutiny of his personal finances, adding churn after PM Starmer's June resignation. UK political_stability held near -2/long -1.
JNIM claimed a June 18 attack on Niamey's airport / 101st air base, the second on the capital in 2026 - a sustained jihadist threat. Niger social_cohesion held at -7. The junta's France-sponsorship claim is excluded as unevidenced state framing.
The US borrowed $1.2T in the first 8 months of FY2026 toward a $2T+ full-year projection, debt at $39.28T. Confirmed US fiscal_state held near -5 / long -7.
The PLA surged an amphibious group and H-6K bombers to Scarborough Shoal for drills Aug 1 (two-source confirmed) after July's Second Thomas Shoal collision and expulsions, while ADIZ incursions near Taiwan ran under half 2024-25 monthly levels amid tool-substitution to naval and gray-zone pressure (Type 076 catapult ops, cross-strait cable loitering); an Aug 6 'crash, 2 deaths' claim at the shoal is unconfirmed and not booked. Hawkish think-tank source, direction corroborated across opposite-tilt outlets.
IMF MD Georgieva visited Buenos Aires July 27, praising the austerity program and saying restored market confidence brings the end of debt deals into view; inflation has slowed three straight months against a fragile FX-band framework with barely positive net reserves. Corroborates the improving-but-fragile trajectory already scored; holds.
CORRECTION to a prior carry-forward: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' flagged last pass were misdated 2025 coverage, not a July-2026 event. The actual in-window state is diplomatic - stalled land-border talks (July 21), a UNCLOS-conciliation dispute, and concern over China supplying tanks to Cambodia while Xi mediates. No conflict score booked.
QatarEnergy kept the Ras Laffan LNG ramp-up paused with Hormuz LNG shipments effectively stalled and North Asia spot LNG up ~10% to ~$20.2/mmBtu by July 16. The direct hit to Qatar's core export revenue persists: held trade near -7.
A new Quaest poll put Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro 45-37 in a simulated runoff (up from a 6-point lead) amid the rule-of-law confrontation with Washington. An institutional-continuity signal; watch-item, no score moved this pass.
The JNE set July 15 to deliver president-elect credentials ahead of the July 28 inauguration; defeated candidate Sanchez called inauguration-day protests on unproven fraud claims. Peru political_stability held at -5.
The PBOC added 15 tonnes of gold in June (its largest single-month purchase of the year, 20th straight month), lifting holdings to 2,346 tonnes, alongside broader central-bank buying - a continued de-dollarization/reserve-diversification signal.
Financial Times coverage (Ciara Nugent in Buenos Aires) referenced in the assessment research for Argentina.
Sweden's National Council for Crime Prevention (Bra) statistics show shootings and fatal shootings falling sharply through 2024-25 even as bombings rose, a divergence that improves the near-term reading on lethal personal violence while flagging bombings as the new threat vector.
No kinetic border event occurred in-window (verified against the twice-triggered recirculation trap): the Dec 2025 ceasefire holds, reinforced Aug 7 with ASEAN observers inspecting marker 37 on Aug 8. The live track is legal-diplomatic hardening: Thailand's May 5 MOU44 termination, Cambodia's June 2 UNCLOS conciliation, and Bangkok's refusal of land-border talks while it runs.
Netanyahu's coalition, destabilized by the Haredi draft-exemption dispute, is on course for Knesset dissolution July 17 and elections October 27; Bennett and Lapid merged into a unified opposition bloc. Outside-window event NOT scored as done; Israel political_stability held near -4 with confidence up.
Protest vigils were held July 8/11 and called for July 15 outside CNE delegations ahead of the July 17 and July 28 recall-petition deadlines; the government asked the CNE to declare the petitions inadmissible. TeleSUR's repression claim is state-media-sourced and excluded. Ecuador political_stability held at -5 pending the CNE rulings.
Hong Kong's LegCo advanced Article 23 subsidiary legislation letting the Chief Executive certify any act as a national-security offense, after a March cellphone-password amendment. China rule_of_law held at -7.
The Tofan cabinet won the July 21 confidence vote 53-21 and was sworn in before President Sandu July 23 on an EU-integration and modernization program. The transition completed cleanly: political stability held near -1 with confidence up.
Thailand's FM said Cambodia's pursuit of compulsory conciliation under UNCLOS 'closes the door' to land-border negotiations; Phnom Penh's government-tilted press escalated 'occupation' rhetoric July 28 while China continues arming Cambodia and positioning as mediator. Structural hardening without kinetics: informs the held conflict scores for both.