Top stories, by evaluation weight
The same reporting behind our ratings, ranked by how much it moved our evaluation rather than by recency. State-self-reported sources are excluded from scoring; non-anglophone coverage is surfaced in translation. Every card links to its source.
621 stories, heaviest first - 3 on this page in translation
A M7.3-7.4 earthquake struck off the Pacific coast near the Mexico-Guatemala border July 17-18, triggering a brief tsunami warning (lifted); >4,000 evacuated, no confirmed deaths in Guatemala and few injuries on the Chiapas side. Low-casualty hazard event; noted for Mexico/Guatemala, no score moved.
On July 9-10 Israeli and Egyptian officials held two days of Cairo talks on Gaza ceasefire Phase 2 (Israeli withdrawal, a technocratic National Committee), with Hamas reaffirming willingness to hand over Gaza, even as Israeli strikes continued. Israel conflict held near -8/long -4. Source is Turkish state-run (tilt) - flagged and weight-discounted; scored as directional corroboration only.
EU ambassadors (Coreper) approved the negotiating position to open Cluster 6 for Ukraine/Moldova (July 8-10) with Hungary's block lifted; the FORMAL opening is slated for the July 14 General Affairs Council (outside window, not scored as done). Ukraine alliance_reliability held near 2/long 5.
On July 7 (Saba Saba) 1,000-3,000 protesters marched in Nairobi over extrajudicial killings and police brutality; authorities sealed Parliament and arrested ~10, with no new fatalities - a continuation of the year-long protest/crackdown cycle under Ruto. Kenya political_stability held at -4.
SCMP reported 2025 births fell 17% to a record-low 7.92 million and China's population shrank by about 3.4 million, more than double the prior year's decline and the steepest drop on record outside famine years.
The Al Areesh, loaded at Ras Laffan in early July, entered the Gulf of Oman July 30, Qatar's first LNG transit since the July 7 attack on Al Rekayyat; ADNOC-linked LNG vessels have been going dark on AIS for covert Gulf loadings. One shipment is direction, not resumption: Qatar trade held near -7. UAE-linked ownership, tilt.
No election date has been set a month after Vucic pledged early elections and his own resignation days after the date is fixed; protests continue and analysis frames him playing Washington against Beijing. Corroborates the unresolved transition limbo already scored; holds, no patch booked.
The presidential transition remains frozen going into the Aug 7 inauguration: Petro says he will not attend but promises a peaceful transfer, while two new alleged corruption cases hit his final weeks and the handover apparatus suspended July 7-8 has not restarted. Political stability held at -7; inauguration day decides direction.
Petro's July 20 mobilizations ran 195+ actions across 26 departments (some TransMilenio vandalism, 22 arrests, localized youth-police clashes); president-elect De la Espriella held a separate parallel agenda. The Aug 7 inauguration-venue standoff is unresolved: held Colombia political_stability at -7, confidence up.
The EU published Ukraine's specific Cluster 6 (external relations / foreign-security-defence policy) closure requirements alongside the July 14 opening. Corroborates Ukraine alliance_reliability held near 3; four clusters remain blocked.
Hamas dissolved its Gaza government, transferring administration to a technocratic committee, but talks remain stuck on disarmament while Israeli strikes continued (five killed July 12 per medics). No breakthrough: Israel conflict held near -8.
EU finance ministers (ECOFIN, July 10) cleared the final step to release 10bn euros of frozen recovery funds to Hungary, conditional on reforms by Aug 31, tied to PM Magyar's 'Cleansing Fire' push. Hungary rule_of_law held near -4/long 2 (confidence up).